Stochastic Analysis Nov no1

Update 1 Nov 2010
The Stoch looks very positive this morning and only some unseen event will possibly then have a negative EFFECT AND might change the outlook ,remmember to do your own research and keep a stop-loss as things can quickly in warrants trading .All the comments are only my opinion.
First off it seems as if there is a really positive vibe and warrants upon the following shares should do realy well as they are at the bottom of the Stoch and seem about to take off:- ACL,AMS,INP,MTN,OML,SBK and SOL
At the top and slightly overbought but showing signs of a further burst of positive energy are AGL and BIL
Showing signs of changing direction and going up now stuck half-way down are EXX,ASA,KIO,SAB.
The only share at the bottom and still showing no strong direction is NED
 The index warrants TOPSKF and TOPSKG    LOOK AS IF THEY MIGHT SOAR.
Beware when TOPSKU goes below 20 cents as if it hits the barrier for one second and even then returns to its former price you loose everything!Gold Bars aaaa

No 28 Stochastic Update

The RAND is stuttering at the moment as the US Dollar is showing the first glimmers of recovery.Benanke seems to want to proceed with Quantitive Easing which  will scuttle the Dollar and lead their currency weaker again.This will probably be the last time this occurs in this recession. As our currency firms our top 40 shares are likely to climb again,although it must be noted that the RESOURCE shares are not following  the rest up to any great extent.Now if the Rand starts to weaken and we receive more in Rand to the Dollar Platinum and Gold shares and other resources shares are likely to fly,but only after first sinking as overseas buyers don't see the weaker currency in the same light as we do.How ever as our dividends rise in Rand terms and our expenses drop,they are likely to revert to buying again.At the moment as physical gold and platium prices increase ever upwards our producers lag behind.
On the one year STOCHASTIC SHARE CHARTS the following is noted.
At the TOP but showing some sign of declining ,but might not be enough  TO MAKE A PROFIT on the vanilla bear warrants  range "between the ceiling and the roof "are
EXX,KIO,MTN,ACL,AMS,BIL,AGL,IMP  as they show signs of further falls in the offing.

Having been oversold ,but still continue downwards for a while are NED,OML 
The only share that show some signs of recovery in a day or two is SBK.
No real momentum either way can be expected till after our own and the American reserve bank meetings .
TOPSKG MIGHT BE WORTH BUYING IN  AS THE PRICE  DROPS ,BUT THERE IS NO REAL HURRY AND MIGHT BE BEST TO WAIT FOR A FURTHER DECLINE BEFORE ENTERING.
ThE ABOVE post was entered this morning
PM Now with China increasing its interest rate this afternoon there might be opportunities for shorts,but be extremely careful as this is against the trend regression line which is not broken and only very experienced traders should consider such a short sharp quick move.( IN AND OUT) 
SEE MY NEW PAGE 1 WARRANT WISDOM
..As always only my opinion,do your own research,I take no responsibility for errors and omissions.

Mini Post

Results of leading companies in America continue to improve.This in itself will not lead to a surge in their market ,how ever with Mainland China starting to increase its sales of goods worldwide ,Americans start to figure their own country is doing the same, its like a spring being wound up suddenly this plus a promise of further stimulation of their market will lead to an explosion of their major shares probably pushing the DOW to  around 11,580 before some resistance steadies their market again.
What has this to do with us ,you may ask? Well our Rand is likely to get stronger again and the knock on effect  will be felt as our resources are likely receive higher prices for their products.A very volatile market indeed,so always keep those stop-losses in place!

August Stochastic Update

NEVER HAVE THERE BEEN SUCH  BULLISH SIGNALS OF THE WHOLE RANGE OF THE FOURTEEN TRADED SHARES PLUS THE TOPI, WE FOLLOW TOGETHER AND IT SEEMS AS IF IT MIGHT TAKE PLACE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.DO YOUR OWN HOME WORK AND REMEMBER TO KEEP YOUR STOP-LOSSES IN PLACE ,IN CASE THE MARKET DOES NOT BEHAVE AS WE THINK IT SHOULD.Best time to buy is when the market starts gaining momentum i.e. when each low is higher than the last for a couple of days. Whats holding the market back now is that the US dollar is strengthening against the Euro and resource prices are staying subdued. (Always only my opinion so do your own research before deciding)
  Looking particulary strong are AGL,AMS,ASA,BIL,EXX,IMP,KIO,NED,SOL AND OUR TOPI. SOME ARE STILL AT THE BOTTOM OF THE STOCH AND POINTING DOWN,BUT SEEM READY TO REBOUND.
GAINING MOMENTUM IS MTN ON THE UPSIDE.
SAB AND SBK ARE RECOVERING BUT STILL SEEM WEAK.
THE ONLY SHARE LOSING MOMENTUM AND GOING DOWN IS AGL
 Weaker than expected retail sales on 19 Aug 2010 in SA have put a spoke in the momentum of upward motion today,how ever can be its over done as all the Stoch is still showing upward bias at least for the rest of this month.

First Update Stochastics

On the 14 shares we follow first dealing with the resources ACL,AGL,BILEXX,KIO,SOL are at the Top and do not look as if they might fall just yet,in fact they might bump along in this zone for awhile.Do observe the moving averages for the first sign of retreat,It might not be the right time to go SHORT yet.
The banks ASA,FSR,SBK,NED,OML are all showing signs of downward movement but to call for SHORTS is also difficult.There is s likelyhood of both OML and NED falling further so they could be considered for a SHORT,
PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH AS ALL CALLS BY ME ARE MY OPINION ONLY
 MTN is also likely to stay at the top of the stoch for a while longer.
A good LONG might be AMS which has been a LAGGARD A lesser certain LONG is SAB but it does seem to be reversing up from the mid-way range
 The shares are taken from shares in the top 40 index

Update

    I am glad that the July 6 turned out so well.In my opinion only this might NOT be the right  time to go short in general.Most of the stochastic indicators seem to me as if the slight pause and small fall is just the right thing,to send the indicators further up.There has been a seven day advance and China also have important info coming out and how the market intrepets it.Gill Markus also can rock our boat,although I have the feeling any decrease has already been discounted.The banks in general are mostly at the top of their individual stoch charts .I should think not a good time to buy ,but you can hold what you have as if the rest of the market runs so will they,for a while yet.OML and ASA might reverse down.SBK is not at the TOP yet so is likely still to rise.
    Resources in general are half way up so are might make a spurt and even run for another period before reaching top.i.e. ACL,AGL,BIL,EXX,SAB AND SOL. IMP and AMS ARE LAGGARDS but are not convincing at this time.Watch other indicators in all the above.Do your own research before trading and ALWAYS KEEP STOP-LOSSES IN PLACE in case the derivitives on the underlying shares don't behave as we had hoped.
Join us on Twitter and then you can add the VIX to follow ,BESIDE ITS MAIN INDICATOR DO LOOK AT ITS CALENDER AS IT STATES THE IMPORTANCE OF NEWS COMING OUT OF THE MAIN COUNTRIES.
SEE BARRY'S BLOG AS WELL FOR NEWS ON RESOURCES. 

Update

 The Stochastic tells me that this might be the right time to go long. I feel confident about AGL and BIL,a little less so about AMS and even less so about IMP.Other indicators also confirm.Only my opinion as always. Do remember to ALWAYS  have your stop losses in place.I also have an index warrant on the TOPI although I bought this on Friday and cannot say if it is now too late to enter.

8pm  The market has turned choppy in America,so shorten those stop-losses on warrants.I still feel that the trend will be up over the next ten days,but obviously the Americans will only react and shares start climbing when positive reports start flowing again. see also   Advanced stock Trading Ideas

July First posting

Well the market is now in full retreat of the FOURTEEN shares we follow.The Stochastic is in each case falling and is either on the 20% stoch line or nearing it Only ASA is below it at this time.The angle of decent is still severvly down and only MTN is already bouncing along the bottom.One must see other signals on the charts before deciding to go long. KIO and SOL  seem as if they are LAGGARDS on the SHORT SIDE.I was short on the INDEX TOPI but I fear got out too soon.Should have stayed in and would have made more.It is so easy to read the signals wrongly.Even if the market seems to turn positive I shall wait till next week to decide when to go LONG AGAIN.
 THE FOURTEEN SHARES THAT I FOLLOW ARE ACL,AGL,AMS,ASA,BIL,EXX,FSR,IMP,KIO,MTN,NED,OML,SBK,SOL.
ALL IS CONJECTURE UPON MY PART,DO YOUR OWN HOME WORK BEFORE DECIDING WHICH TO TAKE.
The VIX shows lack of confidence at the moment and this is a good guide.Better to wait till it shows its going down again and the candles shorten,before going long again.

June Final Update

PLEASE NOTE.I TAKE NO RESPONSIBILITY FOR ANY ERRORS OR OMISSIOMS.
Please do your own research and only trade if you feel completely comfortable about it.
ALWAYS KEEP STOP-LOSSES UPON EVERY WARRANT YOU TRADE AS  THE MARKET MIGHT ACT OPPOSITE TO WHAT YOU EXPECT.
  
In the last update I suggested MTN was likely to decline,which it did the nextand made a good PUT warrant day,there after it became erratic.Remember always to keep stop-losses upon your warrants and other derivitives in case they don't pan out the  way you expect them to behave.
   At the moment the VIX is calming down and is now around $20,The trend is slowly down.Yesterday Moodys also downgraded Greece to Junk Bond Status and it did not have a dramatic effect upon the market,so it seems for the time being confidence is starting to build.
  We are in the middle of the futures close out and although markets are volatile they seem to be returning after each move to the median.The week after the close out has in the past led to markets declining,but we are coming off a low at the moment so this might not be the case now.
 The STOCHASTIC FOR NOW OF THE BLUE CHIPS SHOWS THE FOLLOWING; IN MOST CASES MOVING UP  with still room for further gains for
ACL,AGL,AMS,KIO,MTN,NED,OML and SBK,All seem likely to hesitate for a couple of days then have rom for more upside. IMP is a laggard so hopefully a good CALL as it seems to be moving up
EXX and BIL has reached the top,so might move sideways for a while or reverse down as the whole upward movement is not particulary strong at the moment.,banks look better and should still move upwards
   Do your own research ,as always only my opinion.

June First Update

The VIX is showing  a downward slant,but still around the thirty Dollars shows the market is still nervous..The Euro has shown some strength in the last couple of days and I feel that there is hidden strength there.
Still the market is likely to be volatile a while longer.The Europeans are quite a conseravative bunch and don't like to reveal how much support they can still give.
Do have a look at trading books available in past blogs as they are very good and at those available in the Amazon store.
When it comes to the stochastic on our local shares we find that most are bumping along the bottom and some have made false starts before returning to a negative trend again.It would seem as if put options would be the place where the best results would be.Never make a trade without doing your own research.
MTN has reached the top and might also present a shorting opportunity as it is always driven by rumours which generaly fail to materialise. REMEMBER ALWAYS TO KEEP STOP-LOSSES IN PLACE IN CASE A DERIVITIVE DOES NOT BEHAVE AS WE THINK IT SHOULD ,
Bank shares are proving to be directionless of late and it might be better to leave them alone till later.
The mineral resources although mostly at the bottom of the stochastic are waiting for their resource prices to increase and with China also hesitating at the moment it is difficult to decide what to do