December 4,13/12/ 2012

18/12/2012       The second part of this year has been very good to traders as the pattern has been mostly upwards and as" the trend is your friend" we all should have found it more predictable.This particular blog  has almost doubled the amount of users this year.As it is  niche site around 200 users per month is enough to encourage us to continue.
WE wish all traders well  on the new year 2013 and the best of trading.
Trades now fall away  and can be completely unpredictable with very few traders out there.We shall resume this blog around 15/1/2013. 

TOPSKN STARTED AT 40 Cents ON 4 Sep NOW 79 Cents A gain of 71%. I held it not selling in the temporary reverses but will get out near the end of Dec ,in case the fiscal cliff alters things.
Well I am glad the last update ran true to form .See the latest  tech update on page one.Always keep those stop-losses in place as warrants are very volatile.
If the fiscal cliff s not resolved by year end  the volatility will increase even more creating even more opportunities for traders,but one would have to be very fleet footed.

NOVEMBER UPDATE 19/11/2010

THE MARKET IS VERY OVER SOLD DUE TO FACTORS IN THE MIDDLE EAST,AMERICA AND LOCAL TENSIONS See page 1
We only include warrants that are more likely to be volatile as warrants are over shorter periods.
For longer period gains rather take Instalments or other products.Warrants have time decay built into them which increases as they near their expiary date.Better to avoid warrants with in sixty days of expiary unless exceptional circumstances reign!
As an example if a mine has to close suddenly ,its price might decline rapidly,then a PUT WOULD BE CALLED FOR,IF PRODUCTION RESUMES THEN A CALL WOULD BE IN ORDER.
IF A SHARE IS FLAT FOR A WEEK YOU LOSE AS TIME DECAY EATS INTO YOUR PRICE.
DO REMEMBER TO KEEP STOP-LOSSES IN PLACE AS WARRANTS CAN BE VERY VOLATILE
FINALLY AS LONG AS THE ISSURER IS IN THE MARKET YOU CAN TRADE,OTHER TRADERS ARE NOT REQUIRED TO MAKE THE MARKET
AS ALWAYS ONLY OUR OPINIONS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE TRADING,WE ARE NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ERRORS OR OMISSIONS
TOPSKN HAS GAINED 47% SINCE 4 Sep 2012(As it is a knockout warrant it has no time decay.Knock out 28000)

See technical analysis page 1 above

OCTOBER UPDATE 2012

OCT 18
TOPSKN has advanced by 40% since 4 September to 22 of October which shows that the bull run seems to be intact at the moment  

ONLY MY OWN OPINION,BUT I SHOULD THINK IT MAKES GOOD SENSE NOW TO TAKE THE CALL
 WARRANTS ON KIO AND IMP.
ALSO I NOTE THAT MANY TRADERS ARE TAKING AMSSBB NOW AND ONLY A FEW AMSSBC
I PREFER THE LATTER,AS IT HAS A TIME DECAY OF ONLY 2.6% PER WEEK,WITH 201 DAYS TO RUN.
AMSSBB TIME DECAY IS 5.6% WEEKLY SO IT HAS TO GO SOME BEFORE A PROFIT CAN BE MADE

SEE TECH ANALYSIS PAGE 1,OCT 1 and 16
ALSO SEE RESOURCE TIPS OCT 17
THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF INDECISION IN THE RESOURCE SHARES AT THE MOMENT AS THE MINERS STRIKE ROLLS ON.IMPALA HAS SETTLED SEPERATELY,HOW EVER ALL ARE TRYING TO HEAD FOR COLLECTIVE BARGAINING IN FUTURE

17 September Update

WE ARE REMODELLING THIS SITE.THIS MIGHT TAKE SOME MONTHS.

When a share is over bought or sold ,it does not mean that it will immediately reverse,but is likely still to move in the direction of the TOPI.How ever such a derivative is likely to gain the most when a new direction is established.Always keep stop-losses in place as warrants can be VOLATILE.
SEE THE NEW PAGE 1 FOR THE LATEST INFO

AUG UPDATE no ,2 AUG 14

The market is listless ahead of major rate decisions worldwide.Recovery is stuttering at the moment.Also look at moving averages before entering any trade.As always only our opinions.Do your own research before entering a short term trade.TRY TO USE THE INFORMATION AS FORWARD LOOKING, i.e IF ITS SHOWING DOWN THEN PERHAPS ITS TIME TO ENTER A LONG AND VICE VERSA!UNLESS THE EVIDENCE S TOO STRONG FOR DIRECTION.

SHARE        STOCH      MACD
AGL                   - +               N
ASA                   - +               N
BIL                   + +                + +
EXX                  + +                +
FSR                   -                   + +
KIO                   -                    - -
SAB                   -                   + +
SOL                  - -                  - -

July Update NO1 (July 1) no 2(July 16)

We have changed the formats some what of our two main blogs,upon requests of our visitors.We hope this meets with your approval.Do look on the warrant page for the LEGEND we now use.We no only include warrants that are most popular at the moment of printing each update.These are  only our opinions,so do your own research before trading.ONLY  FOR SHORT TERM TRADING 1 TO 15 DAYS See other indicators as well.
SHARE      STOCH      MACD
AGL             B+ +            N
ASA             B+                -
BIL              B+                N
EXX             B+                -
FSR              B N              -
KIO              B+                -
SAB              T++             ++
SOL              BN               -

JUNE UPDATE NO 3

READ NO 1 AND 2 BELOW FOR INFO FOR JUNE.WE TAKE NO RESPONXIBILITY FOR ERRORS OR OMISSIONS.THESE VEIWS ARE ONLY OUR OPINIONS.   
l
N= NEUTRAL

SHARE         STOCH              MACD
                           Up
ACL                 80%                     N
AGL                 60%                     N
AMS                 80%                   - +
ASA                  80%                   - +
BIL                   80%                   - +
EXX                  80%                     +
FSR                   80%                    + +
KIO                   80%                    + +
NED                  TOP                    + + -
SBK                  90%                     +  -
SOL                   70%                     +

June Cotinuous Update

(2)The was a large sell-off from most markets world-wide last month,The fear factor is gathering more momentum.As things got worse the investors each withdrew from third world economies and went for mostly treasuries.How ever now the US IS ALSO SHOWING SIGNS OF FALLING BACK INTO A RECESSION AGAIN
Update dates in brackets above thus- (1) etc.
So now ordiary people are turning to precious metals namely
Gold ,Platinum and Silver.
ETF's are the order of the day,how ever discerning investors are turning to major mining groups that actually can work at a profit.
Most top 40 shares are oversold but as the Euro and Rand weaken there is little chance of a meaningful recovery.
How ever gold shares are on the march!
As always only our opinion,do your own research,we take no respomsibilitynsibility for errors or omissions.
The start of MACD  shows that they are only at the  their run
Best to take the longest periods and lowest time decay warrants.KEEPALERTS AT 12% AND ALSO STOP-LOSSES AT AT LEAST NO LOWER THAN 17% OR LESS ,AS WARRANTS ARE VOLATILE
7 June             STOCH               MACD
AMS        Bot. Increasing                +
IMP         Bot. Increasing                +

1 June             STOCH                MACD
ANG                  TOP                     +++
GFI                    TOP                     +++
HAR                  TOP                        ++

APRIL UPDATE NO1

LAST MONTH THE STOCK MARKET WAS MOSTLY NEGATIVE.
OVER THE LAST FIFTEEN DAYS THERE WAS VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT EITHER WAY AS THERE WAS NOTHING TO EXCITE THE MARKET,ONE CAN SEE THIS FROM THE VIX(VOLATILITY) INDEX WHERE IT WAS BELOW 20% AND TRENDING DOWN.
N0W AMERICA IS GOING TO IMPOSE SANCTIONS FROM THE 26 OF JUNE AGAINST IRAN.THIS WILL HEIGHTEN TENSIONS AND VOLATILITY IS LIKELY TO INCREASE WORLD WIDE
THE  SHARES WE FOLLOW ON THE STOCH ARE ALL AT ROCK BOTTOM AND SHOWING NO SIGNS OF RECOVERY BUT ARE VASTLY OVERSOLD. THE MACD SHOULD BE WATCHED AS WELL FOR SIGNS OF RECOVERY AS WELL AS THE INDEX
THESE SHARES ARE; ACL,AGL,AMS,BIL,KIO,SAB,SOL,EXX
I AM TENTAVELY GOING LONG ON SELECTIVE SHARES
Do keep stop-losses in place as there can be sudden reversals.If Iran shows resistance the shorts should still have afield day.There is then likely to be a shortage of pretroleum products.

MARCH UPDATE NO2

The market seems very OVERSOLD and seems on the eve of a large REBOUND.
AGL and SAB is already 80 % up on the Stoch and leads the upside.
Ready to go long at the bottom are;
AGL,AMS,BIL,EXX,SOL and ACL.in the case of ACL look for further signals on the chart before going long.
The TOPI also shows signs of breaking upwards.
I take no responsibility for errors or omissions.the above  conjecture  is always only my opinion

March Update no 1

Remember these posts pertains only to WARRANTS.. A warrant might be a buy whilst the share can at the same time be a SELL   A  warrant can be over a time period of between on day AND FIFTEEN DAYS or longer.Do your own research before purchasing.Keep stop losses in place as warrants are volatile.
AGL,BIL,IMP,AMS are at the bottom on the Stoch.Look for other  signs before going long on the charts.BIL and AGL are likely to recover first.
ACL is at the TOP showing signs of recovery as well as EXX and KIO  which over 75% up and climbing
SOL is at the bottom and might present the best chance for going long
The TOPI is at the bottom watch for other signs and might soon climb so watch for signs to go long

Feb Update no 2

Besides the Stochastic indicator which gives the hint when conditions are favourable to move in a certain direction,but not necessarily when,do look at the other indicators as well.
The ON BALANCE VOLUME(OBV) tells us if there are more buyers than sellers and vice
 versa.
The MOVING AVERAGE CONVERGANCE/DIVERANGE(MACD) is very good as to whether the movement up or down and how long each position is likely to occur.The fatter the difference line the better.
AGL,BIL,SOL are at the bottom of the Stoch and climbing
AMS,ACL and IMP are at the bottom  but there no confirming other signals yet
Near the TOP are KIO,EXXand SAB. Do use the other signals to determine how long they might remain there.
Finally the S andP  is around 20% which usually favours the longs as it shows there is little pannick in the market at the moment.
As always only my opinion do your own research.


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First Post Febuary

The market has become  some what directionless.there has been a pullback after a strong run.Make no mistake ,it is still in a bull phase and is like to advance some more.

On the Stoch the iron and related products are continuing to do well,namely ACL,KIO,EXX  ,BUT  ARE APPROACHING AN OVER BOUGHT SITUATION if the prices go up rapidly.
In limbo and able to go either way are BIL,AGL,IMP,SAB.
Over sold and showing signs of recovery are AMS,SOL.

The TOPI has come off a little,but looks lkely to reverse up again.Do watch the ROC(momentum) on the chart which shows it steady and unlikely to fall further for the time being
Always keep those Stop-losses in place as changes can come quickly.As always only my opinion/

First Post January 2012

Well the market has been particularly dead this year,as far as warrant and other derivative traders go.It is normlly a bad time to trade as every one is in a relaxed holiday mood around the year end.Now things are likely to get back to normal,with market makers and traders on their toes..Volatility is picking up making trading worth while again.
Out-side the normal shares that I mention once in a while ,because of corporate action involving a major restructure comes along where extra ordinary profits can be made with ordinary vanilla warrants Such an event is the selling of Skandia by Old Mutual ,as the saga continues there is likely to be more to be made up to the LDT date. OMLSBD would have netted over 200% since last month.Now the share to buy is OMLSBE which has shot up100% in this momth already.
Remember the Stoch is only a guide and other chart indicators should be used to make your decision to trade.Always only my opinion.
Shares at 80% up which are likely to bump along the top before becoming fully overbought are; AGL,BIL.AMS,EXX,IMP,KIO,SAB,SOL...Fully overbought is ACL
The index share TOPSKK is in the same position and is likely to run this week before again pausing and becoming fully overbought.