Stochastic update fo March part 2

The JSE has reached a crossroad  at  the  moment.I sold out of all my warrants excluding the index warrants as the time decay makes almost static markets unprofitable. If one now looks at the three month graphs you will see that the market has recovered to the former high point within this period.Now some stimulus will be needed or the market is likely to fall into a  retreating stage.
Also the future close out due in this month might have an effect.The market might turn down after the close out. To explain again...

The down side of ordinary warrants is that they carry time decay,so when a market is undecided even if the price is steady you are losing as they are best only in volatile conditions,single shares are subject to everything from rumours ,bad results,inside information or worse mis-information that on occasion that  one makes some progress one minute ,one loses it the next.


On the TOPI  the stochastic shows the CALL WARRANT TOPISKC right at the top AND THE TWO PUTS at the BOTTOM Index knock out warrants have no time decay.I feel in my opinion that the CALL might keep bumping the top for a time before a reversal takes place,so there is like to be more upside,but this is fragile
It would seem if CASH would be better option till THIS SITUATION RESOLVES ITSELF .I feel that the market will probably reverse and then that will set the stage for a futher stronger run.As always only my opinion.
Update 21/3/2010.
When to buy or sell is an in-exaxct  process,but I told Barry that prices where going to fall probablyby Friday and that we must trade according according to that likely fact.We both sold out half our CALLS and then bought an equal amount of PUTS to match the remainding CALLS.He reported this fact to on the Standard Post on Friday morning.THIS ONLY WORKS ON THE INDEX WARRANTS.
What I use to decide on these "feelings" are as follows. We call it PIVOT POINTS as follows;
1 False moves on the DOW. For almost all the days  every morning the futures index started as a negative ,but then ended each day a positive gain on extremely thin volumes. PIVOT POINT ONE
2 Close outs can be volatile.Since most of the share moves were up in the days before the  close out the opposite reaction was then likely to occur.This make matters worse this was the quadruple witching which generally has a bad effect upon the market.I is always worst in March.PIVOT POINT TWO
3 On Thursday the Stochastic indicator touched the top line,other attempts never quite got there which showed the rise was too fast.Look at all past times the top or bottom line is touched PIVOT POINT THREE
4 The wild card.Greece informed other European governments it would not make it alone  privately on Monday.The news leaked out on Tuesday,but had no immediate effect upon the market,but after some study Savvy traders realised this could have a knock on effect in a market where no real signs of recovery have taken place PIVOT POINT FOUR.
 Three pivot points are enough in our books. REMEMBER THIS IS ONLY CONJECTURE BY US AND REALLY ONLY OUR OPINIONS.REMEMBER TO ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH . You can comment below or send me a privete note on Twitter    Naomi

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Stochastic Indicator for Marchl part 1

First the update on the last fidfteendays results.

KIO is at the top and performed very well on good results and special circumstances.
EXX is at the top with the improving prices.

VOD is 20% from the bottom and falling.
NED is still bumping along the bottom,it seems as if financials areout of fashion
OML  is at the top

AGL is at the bottom and a non performer as is
BIL at the moment.

To be able to form a better opinion and to have the latest back ground 
on the underlying shares go to    http://www.sashares2010.blogspot.com

Now for the next 15 days:-

 KIO and EXX seem fully priced as the Stochastic indicator is at the top. It might be worth while shorting them and the same goes for ACL as there are special circumstances which seems will lead to a decline in its share price. 5/Mar NOTE THERE WAS A MASSIVE DECLINE DUE TO A SPAT WITH KIO AND NOW THE SHARE IS OVERSOLD IN MY OPINION  COAND SHOULD ME BACK SOME    OML is also at its top of the stochastic chart but perhaps better not to trade anything to do with financials now. Do remember to do your own research and keep stop losses and alerts upon the shares. Also remember when shorting its better to check in on the  underlying shares every couple of hours to see if everything is going as planned.

ALL THIS IS CONJECTURE ON MY PART AND SHOULD NOT BE TAKEN AS ADVICE.

Shares that might be worth putting calls on are AGL and BIL although the Stoch has not reached the bottom yet,check out every night yo see if the lows for each day are higher than the previous day.

   AMS and IMP are bumping along the bottom for the next rise,but might not be ready for another week.AMS has never in the past spent a long period below the 10% line and springs right back,but for the first time in its life it has had to have a dilutive  rights offer 
   VOD might surprise with a run up soon

The TOPI indicator has fallen only halfway at this stage,therefore if the market recovers from this point it will turn out to be a slow recovery,but then again it did not reach the top before it turned down. I see that a reverse head and shoulder has formed on the TOPI