Stochastic indicator for Febuary 2010

First off the underlying shares for the second half of January did not perform up to expectations as there was a general sell-off of about five percent of the index. So the performance of MTN,SAB and SAP was basically flat.

Now for Febuary ,being such a short month and the stochastic indicators being so near the bottom ,there in my opinion only, many opportunities  as the regression lines of the major shares are pointing up. On many shares the OBV are still below the share trend lines which show a lack of confidence in the market generally.WATCH OUT FOR OTHER CHART INDICATORS AS WELL

Shares that seem to be in good starting positions are:-

KUMBA(KIO)

EXXARO(EXX)

VODACOM(VDO)

NEDBANK(NED)

OLDMUTUAL(OML)

ANGLO(AGL)

BILLITON(BIL)

Mini update halfway 15 of Feb

ONLY MY OPINION

KIO almost reaches the 80% mark,time to start thinking of tighter stop losses .The RSI and OBV still seems good.

EXX only half way up ,obviously more to come as the OBV and RSI shows

VOD flat avoid for now

NED unconvincing struggeling up

OML better performance than NED watch out when it reaches above 80% up as things are not inplace for a really strong financial rally

AGL finally picking up speed ,the RSI shows better signs ,but i prefer

BIL at this stage good RSI  though nearing the 80/5 up on the stochastic so tighten those Stop-losses

When above the 80% mark rather sell some but at this stage does not look like one should go short.

17 Feb  today one day before declaration date of Impala(IMP) In my opinion only the Stoch looks as if it might  run ,It might be time to include it in the list above.

I am not sure about Angloplat as its update report was appalling and it does not cut a convincing signal.Its very erratic and the platinum price,Rand/Dollar pulls it in different directions almost every day.It is in my opinion  better suited to other kinds of derivitives.

IMPALA(IMP) might come into the picture in a couple of weeks ,but i feel just not now.

Remember to take world and local events into consideration and

do your own research an ALWAYS  keep updated stop-losses and alerts on warrants as they are easily effected by rumour and can instantly turn negative.
Mini update 12 Feb 2010

I use  CNN  extensively to decide which on the internet to help me decide which way vthe market is going to go. Good to keep up with the news and i find reading it is better than watching it as then if there is somthing i must concentrate upon I can give extra attention to it.
Also go to their money website for the American pre-market trends as our own market is extensively influenced by it.

Stoch Update for second part Jan 2010

I TAKE NO RESPOSIBILITY FOR ANY ERRORS OF ANY KIND
REMEMBER THIS IS ONLY FOR SHORT TERM MOVES (+- 15 DAYS) AND LONG TERM DECISIONS SHOULD NOT BE MADE UPON  THE VEIWS EXPRESSED HERE IN.

First a look how the first part shares performed.

ACL peformed very well ,Recession line up, OBV strong  STOCH at TOP.

AGL preformed fairly well, Regresion line firmly up,OBV weak STOCH at the TOP (Might Retract Slighly)

BIL  preformed well         ,Regression line up    ,OBV neutral   STOCH at the Top.

OML  Neutral                 Regression  line slightly up OBV neutral      STOCH on 80% so it could still go up.

SOL  performed fairly well Regression Line  DOWN       OBV neutral     STOCH  at Top

FNB     performed very well Regression line up OBV neutral STOCH  at top

That ends the reporting onthe above shares.

Now for MY  NEW STOCH FILTER. Do not jump in right away but watch out for other indicators on  the chart for the best entry time

SAB   STOCH  BELOW 20%  and gaining  but note the OBV is weak

MTN   STOCH RIGHT BOTTOM  but gaini

Sappi (a share that has dropped out of the top 40 at the moment)
 STOCH halfway UP
14/JAN/2010 UPDATE SAB showing some signs of rising, as the bollinger band starts to restrict
MTN Signals starting to recover
Also worth watching is Naspers notes
In all cases do your own research then decide if and when to enter.Read the previous blogs for stratergy tips
I am watching the banks carefully .At the moment there are not enough sings of a change in direction and will add as soon as they show positive indications of an up trend.

The above information might help in trading derivitives.I trade warrants .I use the Standard Bank Charts which I find adequate.they are available to any one that has a trading account with the their Equities trading department.
Remember to do your own research as well before jumping in as derivitives are very volatile instruments and always keep a stop-loss and have Alerts sent to you.
DO NOT RELY ON CHARTS BLINDLY,FIND OUT WHY A SHARE IS FALLING OR RISING. Some times  the SToch is at the top but the share is re-rating which means it will stay there for some time before falling back. I dont believe in this bull phase of the market PUT can yeild a profit, with always exceptions of course .TKG has been falling like a stone,perhaps worth investigating, but I know nothing about it.

Update no 3

Watch out next  week for the Stoch indicator.

   Remember derivitives are volatile and it is that very volatility which makes them so tradable.I only trade derivitives in the top 40 index as most is known about them and less nasty surpiises can be sprung upon one.

Remember to keep stop-losses and alerts in place at all times.As a profit is only made upon exiting ,one must have an exit stratergy in place ,then stick to it! Look the previous updates for my stratergy