Update

    I am glad that the July 6 turned out so well.In my opinion only this might NOT be the right  time to go short in general.Most of the stochastic indicators seem to me as if the slight pause and small fall is just the right thing,to send the indicators further up.There has been a seven day advance and China also have important info coming out and how the market intrepets it.Gill Markus also can rock our boat,although I have the feeling any decrease has already been discounted.The banks in general are mostly at the top of their individual stoch charts .I should think not a good time to buy ,but you can hold what you have as if the rest of the market runs so will they,for a while yet.OML and ASA might reverse down.SBK is not at the TOP yet so is likely still to rise.
    Resources in general are half way up so are might make a spurt and even run for another period before reaching top.i.e. ACL,AGL,BIL,EXX,SAB AND SOL. IMP and AMS ARE LAGGARDS but are not convincing at this time.Watch other indicators in all the above.Do your own research before trading and ALWAYS KEEP STOP-LOSSES IN PLACE in case the derivitives on the underlying shares don't behave as we had hoped.
Join us on Twitter and then you can add the VIX to follow ,BESIDE ITS MAIN INDICATOR DO LOOK AT ITS CALENDER AS IT STATES THE IMPORTANCE OF NEWS COMING OUT OF THE MAIN COUNTRIES.
SEE BARRY'S BLOG AS WELL FOR NEWS ON RESOURCES. 

Update

 The Stochastic tells me that this might be the right time to go long. I feel confident about AGL and BIL,a little less so about AMS and even less so about IMP.Other indicators also confirm.Only my opinion as always. Do remember to ALWAYS  have your stop losses in place.I also have an index warrant on the TOPI although I bought this on Friday and cannot say if it is now too late to enter.

8pm  The market has turned choppy in America,so shorten those stop-losses on warrants.I still feel that the trend will be up over the next ten days,but obviously the Americans will only react and shares start climbing when positive reports start flowing again. see also   Advanced stock Trading Ideas

July First posting

Well the market is now in full retreat of the FOURTEEN shares we follow.The Stochastic is in each case falling and is either on the 20% stoch line or nearing it Only ASA is below it at this time.The angle of decent is still severvly down and only MTN is already bouncing along the bottom.One must see other signals on the charts before deciding to go long. KIO and SOL  seem as if they are LAGGARDS on the SHORT SIDE.I was short on the INDEX TOPI but I fear got out too soon.Should have stayed in and would have made more.It is so easy to read the signals wrongly.Even if the market seems to turn positive I shall wait till next week to decide when to go LONG AGAIN.
 THE FOURTEEN SHARES THAT I FOLLOW ARE ACL,AGL,AMS,ASA,BIL,EXX,FSR,IMP,KIO,MTN,NED,OML,SBK,SOL.
ALL IS CONJECTURE UPON MY PART,DO YOUR OWN HOME WORK BEFORE DECIDING WHICH TO TAKE.
The VIX shows lack of confidence at the moment and this is a good guide.Better to wait till it shows its going down again and the candles shorten,before going long again.

June Final Update

PLEASE NOTE.I TAKE NO RESPONSIBILITY FOR ANY ERRORS OR OMISSIOMS.
Please do your own research and only trade if you feel completely comfortable about it.
ALWAYS KEEP STOP-LOSSES UPON EVERY WARRANT YOU TRADE AS  THE MARKET MIGHT ACT OPPOSITE TO WHAT YOU EXPECT.
  
In the last update I suggested MTN was likely to decline,which it did the nextand made a good PUT warrant day,there after it became erratic.Remember always to keep stop-losses upon your warrants and other derivitives in case they don't pan out the  way you expect them to behave.
   At the moment the VIX is calming down and is now around $20,The trend is slowly down.Yesterday Moodys also downgraded Greece to Junk Bond Status and it did not have a dramatic effect upon the market,so it seems for the time being confidence is starting to build.
  We are in the middle of the futures close out and although markets are volatile they seem to be returning after each move to the median.The week after the close out has in the past led to markets declining,but we are coming off a low at the moment so this might not be the case now.
 The STOCHASTIC FOR NOW OF THE BLUE CHIPS SHOWS THE FOLLOWING; IN MOST CASES MOVING UP  with still room for further gains for
ACL,AGL,AMS,KIO,MTN,NED,OML and SBK,All seem likely to hesitate for a couple of days then have rom for more upside. IMP is a laggard so hopefully a good CALL as it seems to be moving up
EXX and BIL has reached the top,so might move sideways for a while or reverse down as the whole upward movement is not particulary strong at the moment.,banks look better and should still move upwards
   Do your own research ,as always only my opinion.

June First Update

The VIX is showing  a downward slant,but still around the thirty Dollars shows the market is still nervous..The Euro has shown some strength in the last couple of days and I feel that there is hidden strength there.
Still the market is likely to be volatile a while longer.The Europeans are quite a conseravative bunch and don't like to reveal how much support they can still give.
Do have a look at trading books available in past blogs as they are very good and at those available in the Amazon store.
When it comes to the stochastic on our local shares we find that most are bumping along the bottom and some have made false starts before returning to a negative trend again.It would seem as if put options would be the place where the best results would be.Never make a trade without doing your own research.
MTN has reached the top and might also present a shorting opportunity as it is always driven by rumours which generaly fail to materialise. REMEMBER ALWAYS TO KEEP STOP-LOSSES IN PLACE IN CASE A DERIVITIVE DOES NOT BEHAVE AS WE THINK IT SHOULD ,
Bank shares are proving to be directionless of late and it might be better to leave them alone till later.
The mineral resources although mostly at the bottom of the stochastic are waiting for their resource prices to increase and with China also hesitating at the moment it is difficult to decide what to do

Middle May Update

    Well although derivitive traders welcome volitility,there have been some events that have taken even day traders by surprise and this has been a difficult time to profit from some of the moves such the so called"thick finger" US move.
     In trading derivitives over any time -span it is always wise to keep a stop-loss in place.As the market becomes more volatile it is usually better to tighten the stop-loss.
     At the moment the South African market almost slavishly follows the  Dow which in turn  follows the relationship between the US Dollar and the Euro.When the Euro weakens against the Dollar the shares come off on the Dow and then the reverse of course i.e. When the Euro gains against the US dollar The DOW and NASDAQ shares strengthen.
    Another index one can watch to  see when trading in about to become very volatile is the VIX.The higher it goes the more skittish traders are about buying.
   All the major RESOURCE SHARES  are now at the bottom of their STOCHASTIC INDICATORS and most have made false starts at recovery.Do look at other indicators before deciding to go long such as  the RSI and watch for narrowing of the Bollinger Bands and of course moving averages. The share looking the best at the moment is ACL
Banks were at their best on Thursday last week to SHORT and now you It would seem as if they still have some way to run before reaching the bottom of the Stoch.Perhaps NED and OML would be good prospects for shorts,if the rumour about a take-over is not confirmed in the next couple of days.
ALWAYS REMEMBER TO KEEP YOUR STOP-LOSSES IN PLACE IN CASE THE SCERANIO DOES NOT TURN OUT AS YOU EXPECTED.

Update for April par t2

The underlying shares have performed mostly as we thought they might for the first part of the month.
 First today I should like to deal with the INDEX KNOCK OUT WARRANT.
  The regression line is pointing upwards and the moving averages points to a steady increase in price.Sure there wil be some reverses as happened Friday and Monday this week. In fact I was knocked out of half my TOPSKC and the stop-loss for the other half was just ONE CENT  above TRIGGER.
  NOT FOR A MOMENT WOULD I THOUGHT OF TAKING THE PUT.I was amazed to see how many people took the PUT .Yesterday there were if I remember correctly about 46  traders trying to exit.IT'S NOT THAT I'M NOSEY,but i do wonder how many traders made a profit on that little exercise.I feel that conditions are not right  for shorting now.
 As far as the Stochastics go ACL,AGL,AMS,EXX,KIO range in the 80% plus area where they with a few variations they stay,while the prices push ever upwards.So in that case I would say hold and wait for a couple of other indicators to show the prices are coming off generally. BIL and IMP are laggards and might turn up as they are hovering on the half way mark now.Looking as if into a recovery are all the banking shares as they look as if they will continue off their lows. The same goes for SAB.The only two that might start a run of their own are SAP and MTN.As always ,only my opinion.Never trade with out doing your own research.

Stochastic update for April part1

 Well the market played out more or less as we hoped.Do remember to do your own research and to keep short stop-losses upon your warrants as the market is very indecisive at the moment.
 We have obviously not heard the last word of the iron-ore/coal saga .
But of those involved EXX is bumping along a near the top,but does not look if it is going to decline any time soon.
 On the other hand ACL looks as if it will make a good short.
KIO on the other hand might make a good long ,but not just yet.KIO and ACL almost always in the past traded in tandem. I might take a call position in KIO ,but  will wait and see for fresh news.
 All overbought at the moment are ACL,AGL,BIL,SAB, IMP and SOL.they might head higher,but that should lead to a sharper sell-off then.
 AMS and FSR are stuck halfway and if they move up should be a positive signal .Might be a good idea to wait for the overbought to move down ,as the way things look at the moment they won't go right to the bottom and then reverse up from mid-way ,then a strong bullish signal.
 OVERSOLD are MTN,SAP,SBK,OML.
  I PARTICULARY LIKE SBK  at the moment,the others might bump along the bottom for some time,so watch the news before deciding to enter.
As always only my opinion,things change rapidly in derivitives and one can not be certain of anything.
At the moment I'm holding the index calls ,but with very short stop-losses. Small CapResource Shares are reveiwed on page 2
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Stochastic update fo March part 2

The JSE has reached a crossroad  at  the  moment.I sold out of all my warrants excluding the index warrants as the time decay makes almost static markets unprofitable. If one now looks at the three month graphs you will see that the market has recovered to the former high point within this period.Now some stimulus will be needed or the market is likely to fall into a  retreating stage.
Also the future close out due in this month might have an effect.The market might turn down after the close out. To explain again...

The down side of ordinary warrants is that they carry time decay,so when a market is undecided even if the price is steady you are losing as they are best only in volatile conditions,single shares are subject to everything from rumours ,bad results,inside information or worse mis-information that on occasion that  one makes some progress one minute ,one loses it the next.


On the TOPI  the stochastic shows the CALL WARRANT TOPISKC right at the top AND THE TWO PUTS at the BOTTOM Index knock out warrants have no time decay.I feel in my opinion that the CALL might keep bumping the top for a time before a reversal takes place,so there is like to be more upside,but this is fragile
It would seem if CASH would be better option till THIS SITUATION RESOLVES ITSELF .I feel that the market will probably reverse and then that will set the stage for a futher stronger run.As always only my opinion.
Update 21/3/2010.
When to buy or sell is an in-exaxct  process,but I told Barry that prices where going to fall probablyby Friday and that we must trade according according to that likely fact.We both sold out half our CALLS and then bought an equal amount of PUTS to match the remainding CALLS.He reported this fact to on the Standard Post on Friday morning.THIS ONLY WORKS ON THE INDEX WARRANTS.
What I use to decide on these "feelings" are as follows. We call it PIVOT POINTS as follows;
1 False moves on the DOW. For almost all the days  every morning the futures index started as a negative ,but then ended each day a positive gain on extremely thin volumes. PIVOT POINT ONE
2 Close outs can be volatile.Since most of the share moves were up in the days before the  close out the opposite reaction was then likely to occur.This make matters worse this was the quadruple witching which generally has a bad effect upon the market.I is always worst in March.PIVOT POINT TWO
3 On Thursday the Stochastic indicator touched the top line,other attempts never quite got there which showed the rise was too fast.Look at all past times the top or bottom line is touched PIVOT POINT THREE
4 The wild card.Greece informed other European governments it would not make it alone  privately on Monday.The news leaked out on Tuesday,but had no immediate effect upon the market,but after some study Savvy traders realised this could have a knock on effect in a market where no real signs of recovery have taken place PIVOT POINT FOUR.
 Three pivot points are enough in our books. REMEMBER THIS IS ONLY CONJECTURE BY US AND REALLY ONLY OUR OPINIONS.REMEMBER TO ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH . You can comment below or send me a privete note on Twitter    Naomi

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Stochastic Indicator for Marchl part 1

First the update on the last fidfteendays results.

KIO is at the top and performed very well on good results and special circumstances.
EXX is at the top with the improving prices.

VOD is 20% from the bottom and falling.
NED is still bumping along the bottom,it seems as if financials areout of fashion
OML  is at the top

AGL is at the bottom and a non performer as is
BIL at the moment.

To be able to form a better opinion and to have the latest back ground 
on the underlying shares go to    http://www.sashares2010.blogspot.com

Now for the next 15 days:-

 KIO and EXX seem fully priced as the Stochastic indicator is at the top. It might be worth while shorting them and the same goes for ACL as there are special circumstances which seems will lead to a decline in its share price. 5/Mar NOTE THERE WAS A MASSIVE DECLINE DUE TO A SPAT WITH KIO AND NOW THE SHARE IS OVERSOLD IN MY OPINION  COAND SHOULD ME BACK SOME    OML is also at its top of the stochastic chart but perhaps better not to trade anything to do with financials now. Do remember to do your own research and keep stop losses and alerts upon the shares. Also remember when shorting its better to check in on the  underlying shares every couple of hours to see if everything is going as planned.

ALL THIS IS CONJECTURE ON MY PART AND SHOULD NOT BE TAKEN AS ADVICE.

Shares that might be worth putting calls on are AGL and BIL although the Stoch has not reached the bottom yet,check out every night yo see if the lows for each day are higher than the previous day.

   AMS and IMP are bumping along the bottom for the next rise,but might not be ready for another week.AMS has never in the past spent a long period below the 10% line and springs right back,but for the first time in its life it has had to have a dilutive  rights offer 
   VOD might surprise with a run up soon

The TOPI indicator has fallen only halfway at this stage,therefore if the market recovers from this point it will turn out to be a slow recovery,but then again it did not reach the top before it turned down. I see that a reverse head and shoulder has formed on the TOPI