RESOURCES LOOKING UP IN 2015 !

   Resource shares were  pummeled in 2014.Their prices  remained lower than production in many instances and many despaired of precious metals such as gold and platinum group metals ever recovering again!
   At the moment base and industrial metals are not much better off as main users as China and other industrial users have built up literally mountains of raw materials to keep prices lower for longer periods. A good example of this is iron ore and although chrome which is used in hardening iron ore for the main part price initially increased in the first part of 2014 ,the surplus in iron ore is now likely to flatten out the prices of chrome.
   Now added  this mix a surprising move has taken place with the sudden lowering of the oil price during the latter part of 2014!
Except to the traditional exporting countries this move has been a Godsend to the whole world which is still recovering from the deepest recession, which reached  its lowest point in 2008 in modern times.
    This is likely to have an electric effect upon the worlds freight movement stimulating commerce and then with more money to spend on needed goods and transport ,products such as autos and heavy machinery are likely to pick up in time as higher standards of living will start to make their presence felt in demands for resources.
Another thing which is likely to boost profits is that petroleum products make up about a third costs of most mines.
Labour another third, but as mines have become better run they have lessened their dependence on manual labour and gone in for mecinisation  to a higher degree.
Both Gold and Platinum are starting to recover. Gold is a cyclical recovery and the reasons for its recovery are not always clear so when buying be sure to take note that reversals might take place at any time I for one think that the price of Gold will pass US Dollars $1300 per OUNCE. Gold shares are out performing the Gold ETF by an average of at least 30% over the last month and are likely to advance further- Naomi


SEE SIDE-BAR FOR TIPS  on the special gold and platinum pages.

ALSO SEE POST JAN 1 / 2015:    http://sashares2010.blogspot.com

Glimmerings of a Resource Recovvery

There are glimmerings of a resource recovery after more than a decade of declining demand, in  the Southern African region. Leading this recovery is the  platinum group metals. There has been less appetite to  open new mines due to social unrest , a long  damaging strike ,socialist government interference,falling prices and demand. It takes about ten years to bring a new mine into production in ideal circumstances and to make it a paying proposition.
Johnson Matthey sees the shortage that is developing getting worse over the next couple of years. The Southern African region produces about 80% of all PGM's. Palladium being the exception with a large Russian production, which might not be available to the West with worsening relations in that region.

In Zimbabwe the geriatric  dictator Mugabe has destroyed their economy seizing their agricultural ,industrial and last year started to do the same to mines. In the process he devastated their tax yielding base, leading to many of the populace starving. In desperation he approached the INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND for a loan to get moving again. The IMF has imposed conditions that have to be met before they grant the loan, one of which is that they allow free enterprise and stop interfering in mining. It looks as if they  are by-passing Mugabe and allowing the mines to develop and produce profits again. Great news !
See Barry's choices page 2 and 3 in side-bar.
SAEE NAOMI'S CHOICES PAGE 1 AND 2

The recovery has come to ahalt some what !

Tensions  regarding the state of the world including recession lurking in the wings, near wars ,terrorism have had an effect on resources this past quarter.

The Resources Recovery

The Resources recovery is starting slowly,but is definitely gaining traction.
See
Barry's choices on page 2 and 3

Resources are coming into their own again

We feel this is the most neglected section of the JSE at the moment.do take no notice of  PE ratios as they are now completely inaccurate. Most shares we mention will be in the ramping up phase for some years. Also money has been raised from share holders so can now be regarded as new operations. See Barry's page 3 and Naomi's page 1,for the latest news.

Movement at last

We have not added anything to the previous POSTS for three months as nothing happened on the market of note during this time.
In fact resources were retreated some what. South Africa had relied on resources for decades to make their economy work.
Various factors have broardened the economy and resources now although still important only make up a smaller part of the gross domestic product.
Now at last as the strike still continues the prices of platinum group metals is starting to slowly increase.
The mines have suffered so much that it is doubtful if they can ever restore production to former levels.
There signs on the ground that it will soon be safe for non strikers to return to work.
SEE OUR PAGE 2 FOR OUR CHOICES
 14,18/6/2014 The strike seems to be over. See Naomi's resources page for the latest on WEZ and 25/6/2014 on JBL

Tensions

New tensions in the world these days, with the Russian , Ukraine stand off , Chinas slowing economy and faltering recoveries in the West have created market that is hesitant to buy resources, locally in South Africa  a bitter political fight  that has spilled over into labour unrest as well.
See Naomi's update page 18/3/2014

THE FIRST POST OF 2014

17/2/2014
As far as Jubilee goes hang in there! Platinum is likely to take off soon.
As far as gold goes Janet Yellan seems to be a dove of the American Fed., probably keeping interest rates low. Traders are turning to GOLD to preserve their capital.
I have added Village(VIL) to my list .See my small cap page.

2/2/2014 
WE ARE IN THE MIDDLE OF A SELL-OFF AS THE STOCK MARKETS RAN AHEAD OF THE ACTUAL RECOVERY.NEVER FEAR THE RECOVERY STILL CONTINUES ALBEIT VERY SLOWLY.THE USA IS IN A BETTER POSITION NOW THAN IT WAS LAST YEAR.HOW EVER GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION IN KEEPING THE MARKET UP WITH ITS BOND AND TREASURY BUYING PROGRAMME PUT TOO MUCH MONEY INTO  THE SYSTEM AND NOW THAT IS BEING WITHDRAWN IS HAVING HEAVY SIDE EFFECTS .OUR SOUTH AFRICAN GOVERNMENT WITH MANY OTHER GOVERNMENTS ARE  ALSO OVER SPENDING AND THAT IS WEAKENING OUR MONEY VALUE - NAOMI

SMALL CAP RESOURCES ARE SUFFERING AND FOR THE MOST PART ONLY LARGER CAP SHARES CAN WEATHER THE STORM,FOR THIS REASON I SHALL REWORK MY SMALL CAPS PAGE SOON -NAOMI

October

SEE Naomi's Small Cap Tips 23 NOV 14 above

See  coment Barry's latest comment on..2.LARGE CAP COMMENT.

A NEW DIRECTION !

See my small cap resources blog and Barry's new large cap resources pages monthly in the index above,for the latest veiws.See Naomi's update above on 15/8/2013
The United States continues to recover slowly.Now Britian and Germany are taking their first tentative steps in recovery as is Japan.In France they seem to be bumping along the bottom at the moment and China is still some what directionless.
Of interest warrants showing good movement are
from 17 JUL AMSSBG UP 85%
           17 JUL IMPSBG  UP 68%
          23 JUL  AGL UP 30%
One has to be nimble in trading in warrant as strike action might disrupt this trend soon.Always keep stop-losses in place.