Post no 2 feb 2011

                       FIRST LET ME DEAL WITH THE INDEX CALL WARRANTS

FROM                            TO
 25 MAY2010     TOPSKF        14 FEB 2911 UP 286 %    11OCT 2010     TOPSKG          14 FEB 2011 UP 135%
27 JAN 2911     TOPKH            14 FEB 2911 UP 90%

BY THE Way topskf expires on the17 March 2011

THE CURRENT PUT WARRANT IS TOPSKW and it only makes sharp small mostly unpredictable gains with equally quick reverses and is like to hit the barrier as all its previous  puts namely Q ,R,S and T   HAVE DONE RECENTLY

Now for the rest of the vanilla warrants, three examples at the moment  AGLSBA up 105%; EXXSBM up 96% as acouple of examples.
Now for the underlying shares of  the most popular trading shares overbought are EXX,BIL,IMP,AGL,SOL,OML,KIO

Rising with some way to go are ASA,AMS
ACL

AT THE BOTTOM IS SBK yes oversold,but the MA(Moving average) confirms that it is likely to stay there for some time.

AS TO HOW LONG THE LONGS STAY OVER BOUGHT,it might help to go to Barry's Autumm Comment see the shares Declaration dates then research the LAST DAY TO TRADE events to help determine when reverses might occur etc. 
http://sashares2010.blogspot.com/

Remember warrants are volatile,so always keep stop-losses in place for sudden reversals.We take no responsibility for errors and omissions.As always only our opinions.

                                   

Post for 1 Feb 2011 no1

Well the market has been threatening for some time to retreat as it was massively overbought.The creation of jobs in the USA is not taking place at a very fast rate at the moment,but as was expected more people were out of work in January as temporary year end jobs dried up as well.

Of course there jitters about unrest in the Middle East brought on by the recession ,but the main reason was probably that the markets world wide had run ahead of the rest of the recovery which is still in its infancy.

We in South Africa have the additional worry of the Rand weakening and it is probably not a good idea to go long till the Rand/Dollar stabelises and trades in a narrow band. As always the market over reacts. As always only my veiw .Do your own research before buying derivitives and keep short stop-losses upon them.We are not responsible for any errors or omissions.

OVERSOLD ARE;
AGL,AMS,ASA,BIL,EXX,IMP*,KIO,MTN,NED,SAB
IMP BROUGHT A BAD SENS THAT THEIR INTERIM DECLARATION IS LIKELY TO BE POORER THAN EXPECTED
SBK and SOL are showing signs of recovery OML is still rolling along at the top and might also be overbought at this time. There might be a recovery towards the middle of Febuary as resources are thenlikely to push the index higher as their results are showing dramatic improvements.

January Update no 2

Most of the majors are slightly overbought,but at the moment MOMENTUM in thie prices keeps them there and there is only small fallbacks in the Stoch then followed by some more gains.
ON 19/1/2011 TOPSKG IS +250%
TOPSKF IS +110% AND TOPSKV(put) -80% 


Near the top are  now,ACL,AGL,ASA,BIL,EXX,IMP,KIO,MTN,OML,SOL.

SHARES THAT SEEM TO OFFER A BUYING ;OPPORTUNITY FOR LONGS ARE'
NED is in the process of recovery
AMS HAS HAD CORPORATE ACTION and is still climbing
MTN APPEARS TO BE A BUY
MTN appears to be a buy
SBK is still a SELL and might turn next week.
REMEMBER TO DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH,ALSO REMEMBER ALL REMARKS ONLY PERTAIN TO WARRANTS SO ARE LIKELY TO PLAY THEMSELVES OUT IN SHORT PERIODS OF 15 DAYS OR LESS.ONLY MY OPINION
Books that can give you an inciteful financial read are:
Online Trading Academy Professional Trader Part 2 (Days 4-7)  //// 2009 BookOnline Trading Academy Professional Trader Part 1 (Days 1-3) 2009 Book
Online Trading Academy Professional E-Mini Futures Trader Course Book
Online Trading Academy Professional Forex Trader Course Part 1 Book
Online Trading Academy Professional Active Investor Course Book
Online Trading Academy Professional Trader Psychology Course Book

January Update no1

Well the new year is here and it has started on a positive note with the market continuing it its upward move started last month.AGL seems to be on steroids at the moment.Definitely the momentum share of the month,helped by them selling some devisions and retiring some of their debt,plus them being a laggard for the greatest part of last year,the largest  lagging resource share during last year.
All opinions are only my veiw and I take no responsibility for mistakes.
NOW FOR THE STOCHASTIC VEIW.
ASA,AGL,BIL,EXX,KIO,IMP,MTN,NED and SOL are all overbought.At this stage it is difficult to see any profit being made on PUTS as the down turns are very mild
 Kindle Wireless Reading Device, Wi-Fi, Graphite, 6" Display with New E Ink Pearl Technology

SBK,ACL and AMS are showing a negative REGRESSION line SO CAN BE CONSIDERED UNSUITABLE FOR INSTALMENTS.How ever ACL and AMS other indicators are showing a break from this line which is likely to lead them into positive territory.The STOCH SHOWS ACL,BIL OML ,SAB and AMS since August as OVERSOLD PERHAPS PRESENTING A BUYING OPPORTUNITY 
Remember to keep your stop-losses in place.
As far as the index warrants go since 25 May TOPSKF HAS GAINED 244% and since 11 Oct TOPSKG HAS GAINED 107% and AGL THIS MONTH has gained 41% I hope all warrant traders are happy!

Stochastic Nov Update no 3

 The Stochastic Alert for this period is extremely difficult to predict with any certainty,so keep those short stop losses in place. Also read Barry's update in a couple of days on his main blog,on how he sees the market developing during the rest of the year.
The weakness of the European stocks is weighing on our local exchange rate .
Shares at the bottom of the Stoch but showing no immediate reversal are ACL,ANG,AGL.
Shares still falling are and about half way down are KIO,BIL,EXX,OML,NED,SBK,SOL Shares at the top showing signs of reversal are ASA and IMP.
Completely out of sync is AMS which might make a good CALL as it is showing signs of a strong recovery. AS ALWAYS ONLY MY OPINION.

Stochastic Update Nov no 2

  Update 10/11/2010 The direction continues to be up,on the charts. Every pullback then produces a surge to a higher level.At the moment the Longs (CALLS) have it.The Rand /Dollar exchange rate is at the moment in favour of a stronger Rand ,which in turn favours our share market moving up.
most SHARES are mildly over bought,with a couple of exceptions. See the post on NOV  no1
for all the info.
Shares on the Stoch that represent the best value at this very moment are ACL,OML,NED,SBK and shares that have lost their way seem to be MTN and SAB. 
As always only my opinion.
On the index warrant side since 25 May TOPSKF is up 217%
and since11October TOPSKG is up 85%. i take the precaution of placing a 20% stop-loss on all my warrants.

Stochastic Analysis Nov no1

Update 1 Nov 2010
The Stoch looks very positive this morning and only some unseen event will possibly then have a negative EFFECT AND might change the outlook ,remmember to do your own research and keep a stop-loss as things can quickly in warrants trading .All the comments are only my opinion.
First off it seems as if there is a really positive vibe and warrants upon the following shares should do realy well as they are at the bottom of the Stoch and seem about to take off:- ACL,AMS,INP,MTN,OML,SBK and SOL
At the top and slightly overbought but showing signs of a further burst of positive energy are AGL and BIL
Showing signs of changing direction and going up now stuck half-way down are EXX,ASA,KIO,SAB.
The only share at the bottom and still showing no strong direction is NED
 The index warrants TOPSKF and TOPSKG    LOOK AS IF THEY MIGHT SOAR.
Beware when TOPSKU goes below 20 cents as if it hits the barrier for one second and even then returns to its former price you loose everything!Gold Bars aaaa

No 28 Stochastic Update

The RAND is stuttering at the moment as the US Dollar is showing the first glimmers of recovery.Benanke seems to want to proceed with Quantitive Easing which  will scuttle the Dollar and lead their currency weaker again.This will probably be the last time this occurs in this recession. As our currency firms our top 40 shares are likely to climb again,although it must be noted that the RESOURCE shares are not following  the rest up to any great extent.Now if the Rand starts to weaken and we receive more in Rand to the Dollar Platinum and Gold shares and other resources shares are likely to fly,but only after first sinking as overseas buyers don't see the weaker currency in the same light as we do.How ever as our dividends rise in Rand terms and our expenses drop,they are likely to revert to buying again.At the moment as physical gold and platium prices increase ever upwards our producers lag behind.
On the one year STOCHASTIC SHARE CHARTS the following is noted.
At the TOP but showing some sign of declining ,but might not be enough  TO MAKE A PROFIT on the vanilla bear warrants  range "between the ceiling and the roof "are
EXX,KIO,MTN,ACL,AMS,BIL,AGL,IMP  as they show signs of further falls in the offing.

Having been oversold ,but still continue downwards for a while are NED,OML 
The only share that show some signs of recovery in a day or two is SBK.
No real momentum either way can be expected till after our own and the American reserve bank meetings .
TOPSKG MIGHT BE WORTH BUYING IN  AS THE PRICE  DROPS ,BUT THERE IS NO REAL HURRY AND MIGHT BE BEST TO WAIT FOR A FURTHER DECLINE BEFORE ENTERING.
ThE ABOVE post was entered this morning
PM Now with China increasing its interest rate this afternoon there might be opportunities for shorts,but be extremely careful as this is against the trend regression line which is not broken and only very experienced traders should consider such a short sharp quick move.( IN AND OUT) 
SEE MY NEW PAGE 1 WARRANT WISDOM
..As always only my opinion,do your own research,I take no responsibility for errors and omissions.

Mini Post

Results of leading companies in America continue to improve.This in itself will not lead to a surge in their market ,how ever with Mainland China starting to increase its sales of goods worldwide ,Americans start to figure their own country is doing the same, its like a spring being wound up suddenly this plus a promise of further stimulation of their market will lead to an explosion of their major shares probably pushing the DOW to  around 11,580 before some resistance steadies their market again.
What has this to do with us ,you may ask? Well our Rand is likely to get stronger again and the knock on effect  will be felt as our resources are likely receive higher prices for their products.A very volatile market indeed,so always keep those stop-losses in place!

August Stochastic Update

NEVER HAVE THERE BEEN SUCH  BULLISH SIGNALS OF THE WHOLE RANGE OF THE FOURTEEN TRADED SHARES PLUS THE TOPI, WE FOLLOW TOGETHER AND IT SEEMS AS IF IT MIGHT TAKE PLACE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.DO YOUR OWN HOME WORK AND REMEMBER TO KEEP YOUR STOP-LOSSES IN PLACE ,IN CASE THE MARKET DOES NOT BEHAVE AS WE THINK IT SHOULD.Best time to buy is when the market starts gaining momentum i.e. when each low is higher than the last for a couple of days. Whats holding the market back now is that the US dollar is strengthening against the Euro and resource prices are staying subdued. (Always only my opinion so do your own research before deciding)
  Looking particulary strong are AGL,AMS,ASA,BIL,EXX,IMP,KIO,NED,SOL AND OUR TOPI. SOME ARE STILL AT THE BOTTOM OF THE STOCH AND POINTING DOWN,BUT SEEM READY TO REBOUND.
GAINING MOMENTUM IS MTN ON THE UPSIDE.
SAB AND SBK ARE RECOVERING BUT STILL SEEM WEAK.
THE ONLY SHARE LOSING MOMENTUM AND GOING DOWN IS AGL
 Weaker than expected retail sales on 19 Aug 2010 in SA have put a spoke in the momentum of upward motion today,how ever can be its over done as all the Stoch is still showing upward bias at least for the rest of this month.