Stochastic update fo March part 2

The JSE has reached a crossroad  at  the  moment.I sold out of all my warrants excluding the index warrants as the time decay makes almost static markets unprofitable. If one now looks at the three month graphs you will see that the market has recovered to the former high point within this period.Now some stimulus will be needed or the market is likely to fall into a  retreating stage.
Also the future close out due in this month might have an effect.The market might turn down after the close out. To explain again...

The down side of ordinary warrants is that they carry time decay,so when a market is undecided even if the price is steady you are losing as they are best only in volatile conditions,single shares are subject to everything from rumours ,bad results,inside information or worse mis-information that on occasion that  one makes some progress one minute ,one loses it the next.


On the TOPI  the stochastic shows the CALL WARRANT TOPISKC right at the top AND THE TWO PUTS at the BOTTOM Index knock out warrants have no time decay.I feel in my opinion that the CALL might keep bumping the top for a time before a reversal takes place,so there is like to be more upside,but this is fragile
It would seem if CASH would be better option till THIS SITUATION RESOLVES ITSELF .I feel that the market will probably reverse and then that will set the stage for a futher stronger run.As always only my opinion.
Update 21/3/2010.
When to buy or sell is an in-exaxct  process,but I told Barry that prices where going to fall probablyby Friday and that we must trade according according to that likely fact.We both sold out half our CALLS and then bought an equal amount of PUTS to match the remainding CALLS.He reported this fact to on the Standard Post on Friday morning.THIS ONLY WORKS ON THE INDEX WARRANTS.
What I use to decide on these "feelings" are as follows. We call it PIVOT POINTS as follows;
1 False moves on the DOW. For almost all the days  every morning the futures index started as a negative ,but then ended each day a positive gain on extremely thin volumes. PIVOT POINT ONE
2 Close outs can be volatile.Since most of the share moves were up in the days before the  close out the opposite reaction was then likely to occur.This make matters worse this was the quadruple witching which generally has a bad effect upon the market.I is always worst in March.PIVOT POINT TWO
3 On Thursday the Stochastic indicator touched the top line,other attempts never quite got there which showed the rise was too fast.Look at all past times the top or bottom line is touched PIVOT POINT THREE
4 The wild card.Greece informed other European governments it would not make it alone  privately on Monday.The news leaked out on Tuesday,but had no immediate effect upon the market,but after some study Savvy traders realised this could have a knock on effect in a market where no real signs of recovery have taken place PIVOT POINT FOUR.
 Three pivot points are enough in our books. REMEMBER THIS IS ONLY CONJECTURE BY US AND REALLY ONLY OUR OPINIONS.REMEMBER TO ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH . You can comment below or send me a privete note on Twitter    Naomi

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Stochastic Indicator for Marchl part 1

First the update on the last fidfteendays results.

KIO is at the top and performed very well on good results and special circumstances.
EXX is at the top with the improving prices.

VOD is 20% from the bottom and falling.
NED is still bumping along the bottom,it seems as if financials areout of fashion
OML  is at the top

AGL is at the bottom and a non performer as is
BIL at the moment.

To be able to form a better opinion and to have the latest back ground 
on the underlying shares go to    http://www.sashares2010.blogspot.com

Now for the next 15 days:-

 KIO and EXX seem fully priced as the Stochastic indicator is at the top. It might be worth while shorting them and the same goes for ACL as there are special circumstances which seems will lead to a decline in its share price. 5/Mar NOTE THERE WAS A MASSIVE DECLINE DUE TO A SPAT WITH KIO AND NOW THE SHARE IS OVERSOLD IN MY OPINION  COAND SHOULD ME BACK SOME    OML is also at its top of the stochastic chart but perhaps better not to trade anything to do with financials now. Do remember to do your own research and keep stop losses and alerts upon the shares. Also remember when shorting its better to check in on the  underlying shares every couple of hours to see if everything is going as planned.

ALL THIS IS CONJECTURE ON MY PART AND SHOULD NOT BE TAKEN AS ADVICE.

Shares that might be worth putting calls on are AGL and BIL although the Stoch has not reached the bottom yet,check out every night yo see if the lows for each day are higher than the previous day.

   AMS and IMP are bumping along the bottom for the next rise,but might not be ready for another week.AMS has never in the past spent a long period below the 10% line and springs right back,but for the first time in its life it has had to have a dilutive  rights offer 
   VOD might surprise with a run up soon

The TOPI indicator has fallen only halfway at this stage,therefore if the market recovers from this point it will turn out to be a slow recovery,but then again it did not reach the top before it turned down. I see that a reverse head and shoulder has formed on the TOPI

Stochastic indicator for Febuary 2010

First off the underlying shares for the second half of January did not perform up to expectations as there was a general sell-off of about five percent of the index. So the performance of MTN,SAB and SAP was basically flat.

Now for Febuary ,being such a short month and the stochastic indicators being so near the bottom ,there in my opinion only, many opportunities  as the regression lines of the major shares are pointing up. On many shares the OBV are still below the share trend lines which show a lack of confidence in the market generally.WATCH OUT FOR OTHER CHART INDICATORS AS WELL

Shares that seem to be in good starting positions are:-

KUMBA(KIO)

EXXARO(EXX)

VODACOM(VDO)

NEDBANK(NED)

OLDMUTUAL(OML)

ANGLO(AGL)

BILLITON(BIL)

Mini update halfway 15 of Feb

ONLY MY OPINION

KIO almost reaches the 80% mark,time to start thinking of tighter stop losses .The RSI and OBV still seems good.

EXX only half way up ,obviously more to come as the OBV and RSI shows

VOD flat avoid for now

NED unconvincing struggeling up

OML better performance than NED watch out when it reaches above 80% up as things are not inplace for a really strong financial rally

AGL finally picking up speed ,the RSI shows better signs ,but i prefer

BIL at this stage good RSI  though nearing the 80/5 up on the stochastic so tighten those Stop-losses

When above the 80% mark rather sell some but at this stage does not look like one should go short.

17 Feb  today one day before declaration date of Impala(IMP) In my opinion only the Stoch looks as if it might  run ,It might be time to include it in the list above.

I am not sure about Angloplat as its update report was appalling and it does not cut a convincing signal.Its very erratic and the platinum price,Rand/Dollar pulls it in different directions almost every day.It is in my opinion  better suited to other kinds of derivitives.

IMPALA(IMP) might come into the picture in a couple of weeks ,but i feel just not now.

Remember to take world and local events into consideration and

do your own research an ALWAYS  keep updated stop-losses and alerts on warrants as they are easily effected by rumour and can instantly turn negative.
Mini update 12 Feb 2010

I use  CNN  extensively to decide which on the internet to help me decide which way vthe market is going to go. Good to keep up with the news and i find reading it is better than watching it as then if there is somthing i must concentrate upon I can give extra attention to it.
Also go to their money website for the American pre-market trends as our own market is extensively influenced by it.

Stoch Update for second part Jan 2010

I TAKE NO RESPOSIBILITY FOR ANY ERRORS OF ANY KIND
REMEMBER THIS IS ONLY FOR SHORT TERM MOVES (+- 15 DAYS) AND LONG TERM DECISIONS SHOULD NOT BE MADE UPON  THE VEIWS EXPRESSED HERE IN.

First a look how the first part shares performed.

ACL peformed very well ,Recession line up, OBV strong  STOCH at TOP.

AGL preformed fairly well, Regresion line firmly up,OBV weak STOCH at the TOP (Might Retract Slighly)

BIL  preformed well         ,Regression line up    ,OBV neutral   STOCH at the Top.

OML  Neutral                 Regression  line slightly up OBV neutral      STOCH on 80% so it could still go up.

SOL  performed fairly well Regression Line  DOWN       OBV neutral     STOCH  at Top

FNB     performed very well Regression line up OBV neutral STOCH  at top

That ends the reporting onthe above shares.

Now for MY  NEW STOCH FILTER. Do not jump in right away but watch out for other indicators on  the chart for the best entry time

SAB   STOCH  BELOW 20%  and gaining  but note the OBV is weak

MTN   STOCH RIGHT BOTTOM  but gaini

Sappi (a share that has dropped out of the top 40 at the moment)
 STOCH halfway UP
14/JAN/2010 UPDATE SAB showing some signs of rising, as the bollinger band starts to restrict
MTN Signals starting to recover
Also worth watching is Naspers notes
In all cases do your own research then decide if and when to enter.Read the previous blogs for stratergy tips
I am watching the banks carefully .At the moment there are not enough sings of a change in direction and will add as soon as they show positive indications of an up trend.

The above information might help in trading derivitives.I trade warrants .I use the Standard Bank Charts which I find adequate.they are available to any one that has a trading account with the their Equities trading department.
Remember to do your own research as well before jumping in as derivitives are very volatile instruments and always keep a stop-loss and have Alerts sent to you.
DO NOT RELY ON CHARTS BLINDLY,FIND OUT WHY A SHARE IS FALLING OR RISING. Some times  the SToch is at the top but the share is re-rating which means it will stay there for some time before falling back. I dont believe in this bull phase of the market PUT can yeild a profit, with always exceptions of course .TKG has been falling like a stone,perhaps worth investigating, but I know nothing about it.

Update no 3

Watch out next  week for the Stoch indicator.

   Remember derivitives are volatile and it is that very volatility which makes them so tradable.I only trade derivitives in the top 40 index as most is known about them and less nasty surpiises can be sprung upon one.

Remember to keep stop-losses and alerts in place at all times.As a profit is only made upon exiting ,one must have an exit stratergy in place ,then stick to it! Look the previous updates for my stratergy