NEVER HAVE THERE BEEN SUCH BULLISH SIGNALS OF THE WHOLE RANGE OF THE FOURTEEN TRADED SHARES PLUS THE TOPI, WE FOLLOW TOGETHER AND IT SEEMS AS IF IT MIGHT TAKE PLACE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.DO YOUR OWN HOME WORK AND REMEMBER TO KEEP YOUR STOP-LOSSES IN PLACE ,IN CASE THE MARKET DOES NOT BEHAVE AS WE THINK IT SHOULD.Best time to buy is when the market starts gaining momentum i.e. when each low is higher than the last for a couple of days. Whats holding the market back now is that the US dollar is strengthening against the Euro and resource prices are staying subdued. (Always only my opinion so do your own research before deciding)
Looking particulary strong are AGL,AMS,ASA,BIL,EXX,IMP,KIO,NED,SOL AND OUR TOPI. SOME ARE STILL AT THE BOTTOM OF THE STOCH AND POINTING DOWN,BUT SEEM READY TO REBOUND.
GAINING MOMENTUM IS MTN ON THE UPSIDE.
SAB AND SBK ARE RECOVERING BUT STILL SEEM WEAK.
THE ONLY SHARE LOSING MOMENTUM AND GOING DOWN IS AGL
Weaker than expected retail sales on 19 Aug 2010 in SA have put a spoke in the momentum of upward motion today,how ever can be its over done as all the Stoch is still showing upward bias at least for the rest of this month.
Tuesday, August 17, 2010
Monday, August 2, 2010
First Update Stochastics
On the 14 shares we follow first dealing with the resources ACL,AGL,BILEXX,KIO,SOL are at the Top and do not look as if they might fall just yet,in fact they might bump along in this zone for awhile.Do observe the moving averages for the first sign of retreat,It might not be the right time to go SHORT yet.
The banks ASA,FSR,SBK,NED,OML are all showing signs of downward movement but to call for SHORTS is also difficult.There is s likelyhood of both OML and NED falling further so they could be considered for a SHORT,
PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH AS ALL CALLS BY ME ARE MY OPINION ONLY
MTN is also likely to stay at the top of the stoch for a while longer.
A good LONG might be AMS which has been a LAGGARD A lesser certain LONG is SAB but it does seem to be reversing up from the mid-way range
The shares are taken from shares in the top 40 index
The banks ASA,FSR,SBK,NED,OML are all showing signs of downward movement but to call for SHORTS is also difficult.There is s likelyhood of both OML and NED falling further so they could be considered for a SHORT,
PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH AS ALL CALLS BY ME ARE MY OPINION ONLY
MTN is also likely to stay at the top of the stoch for a while longer.
A good LONG might be AMS which has been a LAGGARD A lesser certain LONG is SAB but it does seem to be reversing up from the mid-way range
The shares are taken from shares in the top 40 index
Wednesday, July 14, 2010
Update
I am glad that the July 6 turned out so well.In my opinion only this might NOT be the right time to go short in general.Most of the stochastic indicators seem to me as if the slight pause and small fall is just the right thing,to send the indicators further up.There has been a seven day advance and China also have important info coming out and how the market intrepets it.Gill Markus also can rock our boat,although I have the feeling any decrease has already been discounted.The banks in general are mostly at the top of their individual stoch charts .I should think not a good time to buy ,but you can hold what you have as if the rest of the market runs so will they,for a while yet.OML and ASA might reverse down.SBK is not at the TOP yet so is likely still to rise.
Resources in general are half way up so are might make a spurt and even run for another period before reaching top.i.e. ACL,AGL,BIL,EXX,SAB AND SOL. IMP and AMS ARE LAGGARDS but are not convincing at this time.Watch other indicators in all the above.Do your own research before trading and ALWAYS KEEP STOP-LOSSES IN PLACE in case the derivitives on the underlying shares don't behave as we had hoped.
Join us on Twitter and then you can add the VIX to follow ,BESIDE ITS MAIN INDICATOR DO LOOK AT ITS CALENDER AS IT STATES THE IMPORTANCE OF NEWS COMING OUT OF THE MAIN COUNTRIES.
SEE BARRY'S BLOG AS WELL FOR NEWS ON RESOURCES.
Resources in general are half way up so are might make a spurt and even run for another period before reaching top.i.e. ACL,AGL,BIL,EXX,SAB AND SOL. IMP and AMS ARE LAGGARDS but are not convincing at this time.Watch other indicators in all the above.Do your own research before trading and ALWAYS KEEP STOP-LOSSES IN PLACE in case the derivitives on the underlying shares don't behave as we had hoped.
Join us on Twitter and then you can add the VIX to follow ,BESIDE ITS MAIN INDICATOR DO LOOK AT ITS CALENDER AS IT STATES THE IMPORTANCE OF NEWS COMING OUT OF THE MAIN COUNTRIES.
SEE BARRY'S BLOG AS WELL FOR NEWS ON RESOURCES.
Tuesday, July 6, 2010
Update
The Stochastic tells me that this might be the right time to go long. I feel confident about AGL and BIL,a little less so about AMS and even less so about IMP.Other indicators also confirm.Only my opinion as always. Do remember to ALWAYS have your stop losses in place.I also have an index warrant on the TOPI although I bought this on Friday and cannot say if it is now too late to enter.
8pm The market has turned choppy in America,so shorten those stop-losses on warrants.I still feel that the trend will be up over the next ten days,but obviously the Americans will only react and shares start climbing when positive reports start flowing again. see also Advanced stock Trading Ideas
8pm The market has turned choppy in America,so shorten those stop-losses on warrants.I still feel that the trend will be up over the next ten days,but obviously the Americans will only react and shares start climbing when positive reports start flowing again. see also Advanced stock Trading Ideas
Thursday, July 1, 2010
July First posting
Well the market is now in full retreat of the FOURTEEN shares we follow.The Stochastic is in each case falling and is either on the 20% stoch line or nearing it Only ASA is below it at this time.The angle of decent is still severvly down and only MTN is already bouncing along the bottom.One must see other signals on the charts before deciding to go long. KIO and SOL seem as if they are LAGGARDS on the SHORT SIDE.I was short on the INDEX TOPI but I fear got out too soon.Should have stayed in and would have made more.It is so easy to read the signals wrongly.Even if the market seems to turn positive I shall wait till next week to decide when to go LONG AGAIN.
THE FOURTEEN SHARES THAT I FOLLOW ARE ACL,AGL,AMS,ASA,BIL,EXX,FSR,IMP,KIO,MTN,NED,OML,SBK,SOL.
ALL IS CONJECTURE UPON MY PART,DO YOUR OWN HOME WORK BEFORE DECIDING WHICH TO TAKE.
The VIX shows lack of confidence at the moment and this is a good guide.Better to wait till it shows its going down again and the candles shorten,before going long again.
THE FOURTEEN SHARES THAT I FOLLOW ARE ACL,AGL,AMS,ASA,BIL,EXX,FSR,IMP,KIO,MTN,NED,OML,SBK,SOL.
ALL IS CONJECTURE UPON MY PART,DO YOUR OWN HOME WORK BEFORE DECIDING WHICH TO TAKE.
The VIX shows lack of confidence at the moment and this is a good guide.Better to wait till it shows its going down again and the candles shorten,before going long again.
Tuesday, June 15, 2010
June Final Update
PLEASE NOTE.I TAKE NO RESPONSIBILITY FOR ANY ERRORS OR OMISSIOMS.
Please do your own research and only trade if you feel completely comfortable about it.
ALWAYS KEEP STOP-LOSSES UPON EVERY WARRANT YOU TRADE AS THE MARKET MIGHT ACT OPPOSITE TO WHAT YOU EXPECT.
In the last update I suggested MTN was likely to decline,which it did the nextand made a good PUT warrant day,there after it became erratic.Remember always to keep stop-losses upon your warrants and other derivitives in case they don't pan out the way you expect them to behave.
At the moment the VIX is calming down and is now around $20,The trend is slowly down.Yesterday Moodys also downgraded Greece to Junk Bond Status and it did not have a dramatic effect upon the market,so it seems for the time being confidence is starting to build.
We are in the middle of the futures close out and although markets are volatile they seem to be returning after each move to the median.The week after the close out has in the past led to markets declining,but we are coming off a low at the moment so this might not be the case now.
The STOCHASTIC FOR NOW OF THE BLUE CHIPS SHOWS THE FOLLOWING; IN MOST CASES MOVING UP with still room for further gains for
ACL,AGL,AMS,KIO,MTN,NED,OML and SBK,All seem likely to hesitate for a couple of days then have rom for more upside. IMP is a laggard so hopefully a good CALL as it seems to be moving up
EXX and BIL has reached the top,so might move sideways for a while or reverse down as the whole upward movement is not particulary strong at the moment.,banks look better and should still move upwards
Do your own research ,as always only my opinion.
Please do your own research and only trade if you feel completely comfortable about it.
ALWAYS KEEP STOP-LOSSES UPON EVERY WARRANT YOU TRADE AS THE MARKET MIGHT ACT OPPOSITE TO WHAT YOU EXPECT.
In the last update I suggested MTN was likely to decline,which it did the nextand made a good PUT warrant day,there after it became erratic.Remember always to keep stop-losses upon your warrants and other derivitives in case they don't pan out the way you expect them to behave.
At the moment the VIX is calming down and is now around $20,The trend is slowly down.Yesterday Moodys also downgraded Greece to Junk Bond Status and it did not have a dramatic effect upon the market,so it seems for the time being confidence is starting to build.
We are in the middle of the futures close out and although markets are volatile they seem to be returning after each move to the median.The week after the close out has in the past led to markets declining,but we are coming off a low at the moment so this might not be the case now.
The STOCHASTIC FOR NOW OF THE BLUE CHIPS SHOWS THE FOLLOWING; IN MOST CASES MOVING UP with still room for further gains for
ACL,AGL,AMS,KIO,MTN,NED,OML and SBK,All seem likely to hesitate for a couple of days then have rom for more upside. IMP is a laggard so hopefully a good CALL as it seems to be moving up
EXX and BIL has reached the top,so might move sideways for a while or reverse down as the whole upward movement is not particulary strong at the moment.,banks look better and should still move upwards
Do your own research ,as always only my opinion.
Wednesday, June 2, 2010
June First Update
The VIX is showing a downward slant,but still around the thirty Dollars shows the market is still nervous..The Euro has shown some strength in the last couple of days and I feel that there is hidden strength there.
Still the market is likely to be volatile a while longer.The Europeans are quite a conseravative bunch and don't like to reveal how much support they can still give.
Do have a look at trading books available in past blogs as they are very good and at those available in the Amazon store.
When it comes to the stochastic on our local shares we find that most are bumping along the bottom and some have made false starts before returning to a negative trend again.It would seem as if put options would be the place where the best results would be.Never make a trade without doing your own research.
MTN has reached the top and might also present a shorting opportunity as it is always driven by rumours which generaly fail to materialise. REMEMBER ALWAYS TO KEEP STOP-LOSSES IN PLACE IN CASE A DERIVITIVE DOES NOT BEHAVE AS WE THINK IT SHOULD ,
Bank shares are proving to be directionless of late and it might be better to leave them alone till later.
The mineral resources although mostly at the bottom of the stochastic are waiting for their resource prices to increase and with China also hesitating at the moment it is difficult to decide what to do
Still the market is likely to be volatile a while longer.The Europeans are quite a conseravative bunch and don't like to reveal how much support they can still give.
Do have a look at trading books available in past blogs as they are very good and at those available in the Amazon store.
When it comes to the stochastic on our local shares we find that most are bumping along the bottom and some have made false starts before returning to a negative trend again.It would seem as if put options would be the place where the best results would be.Never make a trade without doing your own research.
MTN has reached the top and might also present a shorting opportunity as it is always driven by rumours which generaly fail to materialise. REMEMBER ALWAYS TO KEEP STOP-LOSSES IN PLACE IN CASE A DERIVITIVE DOES NOT BEHAVE AS WE THINK IT SHOULD ,
Bank shares are proving to be directionless of late and it might be better to leave them alone till later.
The mineral resources although mostly at the bottom of the stochastic are waiting for their resource prices to increase and with China also hesitating at the moment it is difficult to decide what to do
Sunday, May 16, 2010
Middle May Update
Well although derivitive traders welcome volitility,there have been some events that have taken even day traders by surprise and this has been a difficult time to profit from some of the moves such the so called"thick finger" US move.
In trading derivitives over any time -span it is always wise to keep a stop-loss in place.As the market becomes more volatile it is usually better to tighten the stop-loss.
At the moment the South African market almost slavishly follows the Dow which in turn follows the relationship between the US Dollar and the Euro.When the Euro weakens against the Dollar the shares come off on the Dow and then the reverse of course i.e. When the Euro gains against the US dollar The DOW and NASDAQ shares strengthen.
Another index one can watch to see when trading in about to become very volatile is the VIX.The higher it goes the more skittish traders are about buying.
All the major RESOURCE SHARES are now at the bottom of their STOCHASTIC INDICATORS and most have made false starts at recovery.Do look at other indicators before deciding to go long such as the RSI and watch for narrowing of the Bollinger Bands and of course moving averages. The share looking the best at the moment is ACL
Banks were at their best on Thursday last week to SHORT and now you It would seem as if they still have some way to run before reaching the bottom of the Stoch.Perhaps NED and OML would be good prospects for shorts,if the rumour about a take-over is not confirmed in the next couple of days.
ALWAYS REMEMBER TO KEEP YOUR STOP-LOSSES IN PLACE IN CASE THE SCERANIO DOES NOT TURN OUT AS YOU EXPECTED.
In trading derivitives over any time -span it is always wise to keep a stop-loss in place.As the market becomes more volatile it is usually better to tighten the stop-loss.
At the moment the South African market almost slavishly follows the Dow which in turn follows the relationship between the US Dollar and the Euro.When the Euro weakens against the Dollar the shares come off on the Dow and then the reverse of course i.e. When the Euro gains against the US dollar The DOW and NASDAQ shares strengthen.
Another index one can watch to see when trading in about to become very volatile is the VIX.The higher it goes the more skittish traders are about buying.
All the major RESOURCE SHARES are now at the bottom of their STOCHASTIC INDICATORS and most have made false starts at recovery.Do look at other indicators before deciding to go long such as the RSI and watch for narrowing of the Bollinger Bands and of course moving averages. The share looking the best at the moment is ACL
Banks were at their best on Thursday last week to SHORT and now you It would seem as if they still have some way to run before reaching the bottom of the Stoch.Perhaps NED and OML would be good prospects for shorts,if the rumour about a take-over is not confirmed in the next couple of days.
ALWAYS REMEMBER TO KEEP YOUR STOP-LOSSES IN PLACE IN CASE THE SCERANIO DOES NOT TURN OUT AS YOU EXPECTED.
Thursday, April 15, 2010
Update for April par t2
The underlying shares have performed mostly as we thought they might for the first part of the month.
First today I should like to deal with the INDEX KNOCK OUT WARRANT.
The regression line is pointing upwards and the moving averages points to a steady increase in price.Sure there wil be some reverses as happened Friday and Monday this week. In fact I was knocked out of half my TOPSKC and the stop-loss for the other half was just ONE CENT above TRIGGER.
NOT FOR A MOMENT WOULD I THOUGHT OF TAKING THE PUT.I was amazed to see how many people took the PUT .Yesterday there were if I remember correctly about 46 traders trying to exit.IT'S NOT THAT I'M NOSEY,but i do wonder how many traders made a profit on that little exercise.I feel that conditions are not right for shorting now.
As far as the Stochastics go ACL,AGL,AMS,EXX,KIO range in the 80% plus area where they with a few variations they stay,while the prices push ever upwards.So in that case I would say hold and wait for a couple of other indicators to show the prices are coming off generally. BIL and IMP are laggards and might turn up as they are hovering on the half way mark now.Looking as if into a recovery are all the banking shares as they look as if they will continue off their lows. The same goes for SAB.The only two that might start a run of their own are SAP and MTN.As always ,only my opinion.Never trade with out doing your own research.
First today I should like to deal with the INDEX KNOCK OUT WARRANT.
The regression line is pointing upwards and the moving averages points to a steady increase in price.Sure there wil be some reverses as happened Friday and Monday this week. In fact I was knocked out of half my TOPSKC and the stop-loss for the other half was just ONE CENT above TRIGGER.
NOT FOR A MOMENT WOULD I THOUGHT OF TAKING THE PUT.I was amazed to see how many people took the PUT .Yesterday there were if I remember correctly about 46 traders trying to exit.IT'S NOT THAT I'M NOSEY,but i do wonder how many traders made a profit on that little exercise.I feel that conditions are not right for shorting now.
As far as the Stochastics go ACL,AGL,AMS,EXX,KIO range in the 80% plus area where they with a few variations they stay,while the prices push ever upwards.So in that case I would say hold and wait for a couple of other indicators to show the prices are coming off generally. BIL and IMP are laggards and might turn up as they are hovering on the half way mark now.Looking as if into a recovery are all the banking shares as they look as if they will continue off their lows. The same goes for SAB.The only two that might start a run of their own are SAP and MTN.As always ,only my opinion.Never trade with out doing your own research.
Thursday, April 1, 2010
Stochastic update for April part1
Well the market played out more or less as we hoped.Do remember to do your own research and to keep short stop-losses upon your warrants as the market is very indecisive at the moment.
We have obviously not heard the last word of the iron-ore/coal saga .
But of those involved EXX is bumping along a near the top,but does not look if it is going to decline any time soon.
On the other hand ACL looks as if it will make a good short.
KIO on the other hand might make a good long ,but not just yet.KIO and ACL almost always in the past traded in tandem. I might take a call position in KIO ,but will wait and see for fresh news.
All overbought at the moment are ACL,AGL,BIL,SAB, IMP and SOL.they might head higher,but that should lead to a sharper sell-off then.
AMS and FSR are stuck halfway and if they move up should be a positive signal .Might be a good idea to wait for the overbought to move down ,as the way things look at the moment they won't go right to the bottom and then reverse up from mid-way ,then a strong bullish signal.
OVERSOLD are MTN,SAP,SBK,OML.
I PARTICULARY LIKE SBK at the moment,the others might bump along the bottom for some time,so watch the news before deciding to enter.
As always only my opinion,things change rapidly in derivitives and one can not be certain of anything.
At the moment I'm holding the index calls ,but with very short stop-losses. Small CapResource Shares are reveiwed on page 2
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We have obviously not heard the last word of the iron-ore/coal saga .
But of those involved EXX is bumping along a near the top,but does not look if it is going to decline any time soon.
On the other hand ACL looks as if it will make a good short.
KIO on the other hand might make a good long ,but not just yet.KIO and ACL almost always in the past traded in tandem. I might take a call position in KIO ,but will wait and see for fresh news.
All overbought at the moment are ACL,AGL,BIL,SAB, IMP and SOL.they might head higher,but that should lead to a sharper sell-off then.
AMS and FSR are stuck halfway and if they move up should be a positive signal .Might be a good idea to wait for the overbought to move down ,as the way things look at the moment they won't go right to the bottom and then reverse up from mid-way ,then a strong bullish signal.
OVERSOLD are MTN,SAP,SBK,OML.
I PARTICULARY LIKE SBK at the moment,the others might bump along the bottom for some time,so watch the news before deciding to enter.
As always only my opinion,things change rapidly in derivitives and one can not be certain of anything.
At the moment I'm holding the index calls ,but with very short stop-losses. Small CapResource Shares are reveiwed on page 2
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