Stochastic July no.1

This kind of analysis was never meant for day traders of the ALSI,who follow very short leads.We and many of our friends find it invaluable for WARRANTS and other longer term derivitives ,from a few days and up to weeks at times or longer.We have had great success using this graph.Do remember to do your own research and observe other indicators as well.

All movement at the moment seems to be on the long side The rise has been quite rapid,but with so much good news flowing through  retreats are unlikely to be very great at the moment and each pull back is likely to led to a further advance
AGL,KIO,EXX and BIL  are slightly overbought
The rest are around 50% and are still going up ,namely AMS,IMP,SAB,SOL

ACL is coming off the bottom so has furthest to go.We expect all to bounce along the top before becoming very overbought ,probably in a week or longer time.
Also of importance although not the sole indicator is that the Rand is strengthening against the American dollar .In the last downward movement it reached /R6.90 to the Dollar.Now its running the other way and is at R6.75 to the dollar. LAST TIME IT REACHED 6.66 IT STARTED TO REVERSE.AT THE MOMENT THE MOMENTUM IS SO STRONG THAT IT MIGHT REACH THE 6.50 + BEFORE PUTS AGAIN COME INTO VOGUE. SO LONG IT IS FOR NOW.

STOCHASTIC May no 2 for all kinds of Derivitive trades

The Stoch on all the major trading shares is below or on 20%(over sold) and looking to rise as soon as the Rand stabilisers or strengthens again.This is not to be confused with a weaker Rand against the Dollar which of course helps the exporters gain more in Rand terms which is a longer term exercise.
These shares that we cover are; ACL,AGL,AMS,BIL,EXX,IMP,SOL and KIO

SAB is the odd SHARE OUT AS ITS IS ALREADY CLIMBING and is near 80% but not heavily over bought yet.

The index warrants have shown choppy trade and we seem to be following America for the time being.We are constantly being told that the bias is up,but it must be noted every fall is sharp and larger than every upside movement.ONLY MY OPINION BUT PUTS SEEM TO BE PRODUCING THE BEST RESULTS ON SHORTER TIME SCALES

March no1

                                 INDEX WARRANTS

 Puts had a good run of late as the market was overbought plus the war news making America  and the world markets nervous

THE VANILLA WARRANTS NOW
We have reduced the list to the eight most popular as they show enough volitility
to make gains in the shortest possible time with the least drag and loss due to time decay.
AMS,BIL,EXX,IMP,KIO,SOL,AGL  ALL OVERSOLD at this moment,and only the uncertainty about Libya is keeping them there.They are likely to rebound soon.Only my opinion. ACL is a laggard and  is still on the way down 
.

Post no 2 feb 2011

                       FIRST LET ME DEAL WITH THE INDEX CALL WARRANTS

FROM                            TO
 25 MAY2010     TOPSKF        14 FEB 2911 UP 286 %    11OCT 2010     TOPSKG          14 FEB 2011 UP 135%
27 JAN 2911     TOPKH            14 FEB 2911 UP 90%

BY THE Way topskf expires on the17 March 2011

THE CURRENT PUT WARRANT IS TOPSKW and it only makes sharp small mostly unpredictable gains with equally quick reverses and is like to hit the barrier as all its previous  puts namely Q ,R,S and T   HAVE DONE RECENTLY

Now for the rest of the vanilla warrants, three examples at the moment  AGLSBA up 105%; EXXSBM up 96% as acouple of examples.
Now for the underlying shares of  the most popular trading shares overbought are EXX,BIL,IMP,AGL,SOL,OML,KIO

Rising with some way to go are ASA,AMS
ACL

AT THE BOTTOM IS SBK yes oversold,but the MA(Moving average) confirms that it is likely to stay there for some time.

AS TO HOW LONG THE LONGS STAY OVER BOUGHT,it might help to go to Barry's Autumm Comment see the shares Declaration dates then research the LAST DAY TO TRADE events to help determine when reverses might occur etc. 
http://sashares2010.blogspot.com/

Remember warrants are volatile,so always keep stop-losses in place for sudden reversals.We take no responsibility for errors and omissions.As always only our opinions.

                                   

Post for 1 Feb 2011 no1

Well the market has been threatening for some time to retreat as it was massively overbought.The creation of jobs in the USA is not taking place at a very fast rate at the moment,but as was expected more people were out of work in January as temporary year end jobs dried up as well.

Of course there jitters about unrest in the Middle East brought on by the recession ,but the main reason was probably that the markets world wide had run ahead of the rest of the recovery which is still in its infancy.

We in South Africa have the additional worry of the Rand weakening and it is probably not a good idea to go long till the Rand/Dollar stabelises and trades in a narrow band. As always the market over reacts. As always only my veiw .Do your own research before buying derivitives and keep short stop-losses upon them.We are not responsible for any errors or omissions.

OVERSOLD ARE;
AGL,AMS,ASA,BIL,EXX,IMP*,KIO,MTN,NED,SAB
IMP BROUGHT A BAD SENS THAT THEIR INTERIM DECLARATION IS LIKELY TO BE POORER THAN EXPECTED
SBK and SOL are showing signs of recovery OML is still rolling along at the top and might also be overbought at this time. There might be a recovery towards the middle of Febuary as resources are thenlikely to push the index higher as their results are showing dramatic improvements.

January Update no 2

Most of the majors are slightly overbought,but at the moment MOMENTUM in thie prices keeps them there and there is only small fallbacks in the Stoch then followed by some more gains.
ON 19/1/2011 TOPSKG IS +250%
TOPSKF IS +110% AND TOPSKV(put) -80% 


Near the top are  now,ACL,AGL,ASA,BIL,EXX,IMP,KIO,MTN,OML,SOL.

SHARES THAT SEEM TO OFFER A BUYING ;OPPORTUNITY FOR LONGS ARE'
NED is in the process of recovery
AMS HAS HAD CORPORATE ACTION and is still climbing
MTN APPEARS TO BE A BUY
MTN appears to be a buy
SBK is still a SELL and might turn next week.
REMEMBER TO DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH,ALSO REMEMBER ALL REMARKS ONLY PERTAIN TO WARRANTS SO ARE LIKELY TO PLAY THEMSELVES OUT IN SHORT PERIODS OF 15 DAYS OR LESS.ONLY MY OPINION
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January Update no1

Well the new year is here and it has started on a positive note with the market continuing it its upward move started last month.AGL seems to be on steroids at the moment.Definitely the momentum share of the month,helped by them selling some devisions and retiring some of their debt,plus them being a laggard for the greatest part of last year,the largest  lagging resource share during last year.
All opinions are only my veiw and I take no responsibility for mistakes.
NOW FOR THE STOCHASTIC VEIW.
ASA,AGL,BIL,EXX,KIO,IMP,MTN,NED and SOL are all overbought.At this stage it is difficult to see any profit being made on PUTS as the down turns are very mild
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SBK,ACL and AMS are showing a negative REGRESSION line SO CAN BE CONSIDERED UNSUITABLE FOR INSTALMENTS.How ever ACL and AMS other indicators are showing a break from this line which is likely to lead them into positive territory.The STOCH SHOWS ACL,BIL OML ,SAB and AMS since August as OVERSOLD PERHAPS PRESENTING A BUYING OPPORTUNITY 
Remember to keep your stop-losses in place.
As far as the index warrants go since 25 May TOPSKF HAS GAINED 244% and since 11 Oct TOPSKG HAS GAINED 107% and AGL THIS MONTH has gained 41% I hope all warrant traders are happy!

Stochastic Nov Update no 3

 The Stochastic Alert for this period is extremely difficult to predict with any certainty,so keep those short stop losses in place. Also read Barry's update in a couple of days on his main blog,on how he sees the market developing during the rest of the year.
The weakness of the European stocks is weighing on our local exchange rate .
Shares at the bottom of the Stoch but showing no immediate reversal are ACL,ANG,AGL.
Shares still falling are and about half way down are KIO,BIL,EXX,OML,NED,SBK,SOL Shares at the top showing signs of reversal are ASA and IMP.
Completely out of sync is AMS which might make a good CALL as it is showing signs of a strong recovery. AS ALWAYS ONLY MY OPINION.

Stochastic Update Nov no 2

  Update 10/11/2010 The direction continues to be up,on the charts. Every pullback then produces a surge to a higher level.At the moment the Longs (CALLS) have it.The Rand /Dollar exchange rate is at the moment in favour of a stronger Rand ,which in turn favours our share market moving up.
most SHARES are mildly over bought,with a couple of exceptions. See the post on NOV  no1
for all the info.
Shares on the Stoch that represent the best value at this very moment are ACL,OML,NED,SBK and shares that have lost their way seem to be MTN and SAB. 
As always only my opinion.
On the index warrant side since 25 May TOPSKF is up 217%
and since11October TOPSKG is up 85%. i take the precaution of placing a 20% stop-loss on all my warrants.

Stochastic Analysis Nov no1

Update 1 Nov 2010
The Stoch looks very positive this morning and only some unseen event will possibly then have a negative EFFECT AND might change the outlook ,remmember to do your own research and keep a stop-loss as things can quickly in warrants trading .All the comments are only my opinion.
First off it seems as if there is a really positive vibe and warrants upon the following shares should do realy well as they are at the bottom of the Stoch and seem about to take off:- ACL,AMS,INP,MTN,OML,SBK and SOL
At the top and slightly overbought but showing signs of a further burst of positive energy are AGL and BIL
Showing signs of changing direction and going up now stuck half-way down are EXX,ASA,KIO,SAB.
The only share at the bottom and still showing no strong direction is NED
 The index warrants TOPSKF and TOPSKG    LOOK AS IF THEY MIGHT SOAR.
Beware when TOPSKU goes below 20 cents as if it hits the barrier for one second and even then returns to its former price you loose everything!Gold Bars aaaa