NOVEMBER no1

The market is very volatile as no one is sure which way things are going to pan out in Europe.How ever we can not put all the blame on these events as the TOPI warrants show the way with gains of about 100% this month.It would seem as if the market is just pausing  for breath,before further advances
All the main trading vanilla warrants are overbought and show signs of going further down. Around 80% up are;
ACL,AMS,AGL,BIL,IMP,KIO,SAB,SOL,EXX

The US DOLLAR HAS GAINED 18% AGAINST THE RAND SINCE 4 AUG 2011
 The index warrant is also overbought and has shown 100%gain in one month namely; TOPSKK

MID-MONTH UPDATE

The market finally seems to be on the recovery path,although very slowly.CALL warrants are begining to rule.
KIO,SAB,SOL are at the 80%
 up on the Stoch.Looking at the RSI shows us that the opening of positions shown means that the shares are likely to go higher and stay there for some time.
AGL,AMS,EXX, IMP are half way up and looking to extend their gains.
ACL is at the top but coming off as it is over bought.Only my opinion,do your own research.
The Index CALL warrant reflets the upward move of the shares,but is also dependent(with our shares) upon the Rand strength to the Dollar.As it strengthens along with the Euro against the US Dollar the index rises.
Gold and Platinum is also showing signs of recovery but both the gold and platinum warrants have too much time decay at this stage for such a slow moving product ,as to make them viable.

ADVANCED Stock & Share Trading Ideas: NEW ALERT

ADVANCED Stock & Share Trading Ideas: NEW ALERT: October 2011(Day in month note is first published at beginning of sentence) 11. SLOVAKIA voting no to the Euro bail out of Greece has more ...

October Warrant Update

It has been a good trading time for shorts of late. Although the Stochastic Analysis is mostly at the bottom now there is little sign of rising share prices as long as the European crisis continues.Better results from shares in the USA  later this month will probably make better conditions for CALL WARRANTS and other derivatives.


Do use the MACD in conjunction with the STOCH to decide as when to go long.


AMS,AGL,BIL,EXX,IMP,KIO,SOL ARE NEARLY ALL AT THE BOTTOM
WITH SOME STILL SHOWING SIGNS OF FALLING.


ACL A LAGGARD IS STILL RISING. AS IS SAB
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ON THE INDEX THE PUT TOPPKX HAS HAD A GREAT RUN  RISING 104%SINCE 30 MARCH
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PERHAPS A GOOD TO BUY THE ALL GOLD WARRANT GLDSBM AS IT IS LIKELY TO RECOVER.
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As always only my opinion and remember to keep those stop -losses in place as things can change quickly

September mid-month update

The market has fallen so far that even after a five day rise ,every pull back is likely to be a token breather,
extremely difficult to short at this juncture.With the steps now been taken world wide to stabilise the market the upward moves have become more positive.Always keep your stop-losses in place as the market is still volatile and rumours of any kind can lead to sudden reversals.

 Near 80% up and still rising are;
AGL
AMS
BIL
EXX
SAB
SOL
and the TOPI INDEX
KIO is 50% up.
LAGGARDS ARE
ACL
IMP which has positive news about its Zimbabwe  assets both could possibly play catch up.

August Update no 2

The very volatile trading conditions were caused by the USA downgrade of their credit  rating and then the knock on effect of the Euozone difficulties.

The over sold condition persisted longer than could be anticipated.Shares on the whole have retracted to more reasonable levels.

The market is still oversold.Our Rand weakened to around 7.27 to the Dollar,while in the long run is good for resource counters that export .

How ever in the short term the downward movement was too severe and shares are likely to recover as the Rand strengthens.If it goes below R7 to the Dollar we are like to see a stronger upward movement.

0VERSOLD and just above 20 %and showing a strong recovery are:

ACL

AGL

AMS

BIL

EXX

IMP

SAB

SOL

KIO HAS JUST Payed ITS DIVIDEND AND IS LIKELY TO BE A LAGGARD FOR SOME TIME TO COME

On the TOPI there seems to be no knock out call warrant and I have been forced to take an ordinary vanilla warrant,namely TOPSBF which 1.9% time decay The TOPI IS ALSO OVERSOLD

STOP PRESS ;TODAY A KNOCKOUT WARRANT HAS BEEN MADE AVAILABLE   26/8/2011 NAMELY      TOPSKK

Along the way up there might be sudden reversals as the market is very nervous so always keep your stop-losses in place

Stochastic July no.1

This kind of analysis was never meant for day traders of the ALSI,who follow very short leads.We and many of our friends find it invaluable for WARRANTS and other longer term derivitives ,from a few days and up to weeks at times or longer.We have had great success using this graph.Do remember to do your own research and observe other indicators as well.

All movement at the moment seems to be on the long side The rise has been quite rapid,but with so much good news flowing through  retreats are unlikely to be very great at the moment and each pull back is likely to led to a further advance
AGL,KIO,EXX and BIL  are slightly overbought
The rest are around 50% and are still going up ,namely AMS,IMP,SAB,SOL

ACL is coming off the bottom so has furthest to go.We expect all to bounce along the top before becoming very overbought ,probably in a week or longer time.
Also of importance although not the sole indicator is that the Rand is strengthening against the American dollar .In the last downward movement it reached /R6.90 to the Dollar.Now its running the other way and is at R6.75 to the dollar. LAST TIME IT REACHED 6.66 IT STARTED TO REVERSE.AT THE MOMENT THE MOMENTUM IS SO STRONG THAT IT MIGHT REACH THE 6.50 + BEFORE PUTS AGAIN COME INTO VOGUE. SO LONG IT IS FOR NOW.

STOCHASTIC May no 2 for all kinds of Derivitive trades

The Stoch on all the major trading shares is below or on 20%(over sold) and looking to rise as soon as the Rand stabilisers or strengthens again.This is not to be confused with a weaker Rand against the Dollar which of course helps the exporters gain more in Rand terms which is a longer term exercise.
These shares that we cover are; ACL,AGL,AMS,BIL,EXX,IMP,SOL and KIO

SAB is the odd SHARE OUT AS ITS IS ALREADY CLIMBING and is near 80% but not heavily over bought yet.

The index warrants have shown choppy trade and we seem to be following America for the time being.We are constantly being told that the bias is up,but it must be noted every fall is sharp and larger than every upside movement.ONLY MY OPINION BUT PUTS SEEM TO BE PRODUCING THE BEST RESULTS ON SHORTER TIME SCALES

March no1

                                 INDEX WARRANTS

 Puts had a good run of late as the market was overbought plus the war news making America  and the world markets nervous

THE VANILLA WARRANTS NOW
We have reduced the list to the eight most popular as they show enough volitility
to make gains in the shortest possible time with the least drag and loss due to time decay.
AMS,BIL,EXX,IMP,KIO,SOL,AGL  ALL OVERSOLD at this moment,and only the uncertainty about Libya is keeping them there.They are likely to rebound soon.Only my opinion. ACL is a laggard and  is still on the way down 
.

Post no 2 feb 2011

                       FIRST LET ME DEAL WITH THE INDEX CALL WARRANTS

FROM                            TO
 25 MAY2010     TOPSKF        14 FEB 2911 UP 286 %    11OCT 2010     TOPSKG          14 FEB 2011 UP 135%
27 JAN 2911     TOPKH            14 FEB 2911 UP 90%

BY THE Way topskf expires on the17 March 2011

THE CURRENT PUT WARRANT IS TOPSKW and it only makes sharp small mostly unpredictable gains with equally quick reverses and is like to hit the barrier as all its previous  puts namely Q ,R,S and T   HAVE DONE RECENTLY

Now for the rest of the vanilla warrants, three examples at the moment  AGLSBA up 105%; EXXSBM up 96% as acouple of examples.
Now for the underlying shares of  the most popular trading shares overbought are EXX,BIL,IMP,AGL,SOL,OML,KIO

Rising with some way to go are ASA,AMS
ACL

AT THE BOTTOM IS SBK yes oversold,but the MA(Moving average) confirms that it is likely to stay there for some time.

AS TO HOW LONG THE LONGS STAY OVER BOUGHT,it might help to go to Barry's Autumm Comment see the shares Declaration dates then research the LAST DAY TO TRADE events to help determine when reverses might occur etc. 
http://sashares2010.blogspot.com/

Remember warrants are volatile,so always keep stop-losses in place for sudden reversals.We take no responsibility for errors and omissions.As always only our opinions.